By Kostis P. Papadiochos
Athens and Paris have agreed on the exact wording of the communiqué that will notify coastal states, including Turkey, of the resumption of work on the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnector, according to reliable sources.
The notice, which will also be communicated to Greece, Cyprus and possibly Egypt, depending on where the surveys take place, will state that “a named vessel sailing under the French flag will conduct surveys for the laying of a cable in areas where maritime boundaries have not been delimited.” It will describe the areas in detail and specify how long the work will last.
As Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told state broadcaster ERT on Thursday, the work will begin “soon.”
According to the same sources, it remains unclear who will issue the notice: the survey vessel, French infrastructure investment company Meridiam, which has acquired a majority stake in the Great Sea Interconnector, or the French government itself. Athens has not ruled out any of the three options.
Greece’s position will, in any event, be protected. The notice will not seek Turkey’s permission to conduct the surveys, while the NAVTEX maritime advisory that follows will be issued by the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service’s Heraklion station. Under established practice, the station issues navigational warnings for all activities within its area of responsibility in the Eastern Mediterranean.
It should be recalled, however, that Turkish sources outlined Ankara’s position one month ago in comments reported by Kathimerini’s Istanbul correspondent, Manolis Kostidis.
According to those sources, “when survey or cable-laying activities are planned in maritime areas over which Turkey has declared and maintains sovereign rights and jurisdiction, the flag state of the vessels involved should contact Turkey through diplomatic channels before the activities begin, with the aim of ensuring the necessary cooperation and coordination and avoiding conflicting activities.”
In that sense, it is uncertain whether Ankara will consider the communiqué sufficient, even if it is issued by the French government itself. That is regarded as the most likely option and would be intended as a gesture of goodwill toward the government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The possible range of Turkish responses has therefore already been mapped out.
Under the least confrontational scenario, Turkey would accept the notice and limit its response to issuing its own—illegal—NAVTEX for the surveys.
Other possibilities under consideration include Ankara requesting further clarification and consultations before the surveys begin, or escalating tensions at sea by deploying a warship to the area. It could then harass the survey vessel over the radio or attempt to stop the work from proceeding, as it did near Kasos in July 2024.
Three “reefs” on the road to the ballot box
New Democracy is entering the prolonged campaign leading up to the spring 2027 elections with a wide lead in voting-intention polls and little momentum among its political opponents, ELAS and PASOK. At the same time, however, the governing party remains well short of the support needed to secure a parliamentary majority.
Experienced party officials say Mitsotakis is in a position to seek a third term as prime minister, provided New Democracy successfully manages “three plus three” challenges.
The first three carry particular weight. The remaining three, although they have so far largely flown under the radar, could still influence the election result.
The major tests facing the government include:
- Tackling the high cost of living, particularly energy and food prices. Persistent price pressures could undermine the government’s wider economic message.
- Managing national issues. These are currently working in the government’s favor, but no one can predict how they would affect voters if Ankara chose to trigger a major crisis.
- Preventing an atmosphere dominated by scandal allegations from weakening New Democracy. The government’s biggest “black hole” over the past 12 months, also reflected in opinion polls, was the OPEKEPE scandal.
Beyond these broader political and economic obstacles, New Democracy must successfully navigate three other important aspects of the election campaign.
First, political wear and tear usually begins in major urban centers before spreading to the provinces. During New Democracy’s current term, however, the opposite has happened: support for the governing party has declined outside the cities.
It is therefore considered crucial for New Democracy to maintain its dominance in the Athens metropolitan area and other major cities around the country. For that to happen, the political choices presented by Mitsotakis, which can influence centrist voters, must be effective and, above all, must not drive opposing groups of voters to unite against him.
Second, both Alexis Tsipras and Nikos Androulakis are expected to gradually turn their attention toward centrist voters.
To preserve his political dominance, Mitsotakis will have to fend off efforts by ELAS and PASOK to claim part of the political center. At the same time, New Democracy is certain to face pressure from the right, from both Antonis Samaras and Kyriakos Velopoulos.
Third, New Democracy must ensure that voter abstention does not hurt the party itself.
Under normal circumstances, a low turnout tends to benefit New Democracy because it is the largest party and draws considerable support from older voters, who traditionally turn out in greater numbers.
In the coming election, however, staying at home could become an attractive option for dissatisfied New Democracy voters, particularly if the view takes hold that the country is heading toward a two-round election. Those voters may choose the “sofa option” as a way of sending a message to the government.
It is also clear that the political audience of Ilias Kasidiaris does not overlap with New Democracy’s voter base. Nevertheless, some observers believe the former senior Golden Dawn figure could bring more young people to the polls.
By increasing overall turnout, this could indirectly reduce New Democracy’s share of the vote.
