Opinion
By Dr. Petros Karekla*
The tragic events of 1974 unquestionably and fundamentally changed the realities of what has long been described as the “Cyprus problem.”
Is the occupier, Turkey, prepared to compromise on the basis of everything discussed until now regarding a federal solution, or not?
In an effort to ensure the survival of Hellenism in Cyprus following Turkey’s violent seizure of 37% of the island’s territory, which made refugees of roughly one-third of Greek Cypriots and began the systematic “Turkification” of the occupied areas, President Makarios, followed by every subsequent president, concluded that a historic and honorable compromise in the form of a federal solution had to be accepted.
During the Vassiliou presidency, that solution was ultimately given its formal designation in a United Nations Security Council resolution as a bizonal, bicommunal federation.
This historic compromise came close to being realized at Crans-Montana in 2017. Ultimately, however, it did not become a reality, mainly because of Turkey, in my personal view, and its uncompromising position on the so-called external issues, based on everything that has been documented, said, and written on the matter.
Since then, the Turkish side has openly called for a two-state solution. It would probably have no objection to a similarly named confederation, which would also suit its interests. What it is no longer discussing is a genuine federation, certainly not one that meets European standards and is viable and functional. The Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union and must remain so after a settlement.
This is the crossroads we have reached.
In my view, the current effort, involving the more active engagement of outgoing UN Secretary-General António Guterres, must clarify the situation once and for all. Is the occupier, Turkey, prepared to compromise on the basis of everything discussed until now regarding a federal solution, or not?
I do not believe further concessions should be made, because we have already moved beyond the limits of safety. Does the Turkish side agree to a united, European and federal Cyprus that can function properly within the EU, or does it not?
If it does, then let us move forward as quickly as possible and finally reach a settlement. I have no doubt that such a solution would also help Turkey’s relations with Europe.
Those on our side who indulge in theoretical discussions about achieving “ideal” and perhaps historically fairer solutions do nothing to help us avoid further dangerous developments and finally enter a new era with the Cyprus problem resolved. Such a settlement would open new paths for our country.
That is now the desired outcome for us, at least for the majority, I believe. Let us hope the other side also understands that this would be a genuine win-win outcome for everyone.
If Turkey does not agree, however, then I believe it is a waste of time and effort for Greece and Cyprus to continue treating it as they have until now.
Turkey must begin encountering obstacles at every turn from the two EU member states, which can undoubtedly secure allies in this effort. Greece and Cyprus must act without hesitation and with confidence. Turkey must find us openly standing in its way wherever it turns.
Greece, which is rightly strengthening its defenses through agreements and domestic measures, must also take seriously its role as a guarantor power of the Republic of Cyprus. It has legal obligations, as well as national ones, and must now fulfill them carefully and seriously.
Working with the Republic of Cyprus and with its financial support, Greece must establish a “military counterweight” on the island, making its military presence and concern for the country whose independence and territorial integrity it guaranteed with its signature far more visible.
The presence of several F-16V fighter jets in Paphos over the past few months is a step in the right direction. The base should be strengthened further through a broader presence of the Hellenic Air Force.
A strong and permanent naval presence is also needed, along with reinforcements for Greek ground forces.
Turkey could then be told through the appropriate channels that all these Greek forces in Cyprus are ready to withdraw immediately and simultaneously with the withdrawal of Turkish forces from the island.
In my view, this—and this alone—would seriously concern Turkey: the prospect of military forces being withdrawn from its soft underbelly.
Unfortunately, Turkey treats everything else—appeals, resolutions, and the like—with complete contempt. We know from history that this is its mentality. Without strength behind you, it will not even say good morning.
The leaderships of Greece and Cyprus must now think seriously before it is too late. There is no longer room for vague statements, polished declarations, or actions taken merely for appearances' sake.
*Dr. Petros Kareklas is a political analyst, former mayor of Kythrea and former director-general of several government ministries.
