Cyprus leaders have until September 18 to show talks are going somewhere

Last Wednesday afternoon’s meeting between the two leaders was their first since the UN secretary-general’s visit to Cyprus.

Sources within the international organisation described the meeting as constructive, a view also reflected in President Christodoulides’ comments afterwards.

The immediate news was the decision to intensify their contacts and meet once a week. The real significance, however, lies in the message António Guterres delivered before leaving Cyprus.

If the two leaders are able to discuss every aspect of the Cyprus problem, they can meet Guterres in New York in September and explain where they stand on the issues affecting the process.

Most importantly, they could tell him whether there is enough common ground to convene a five-party conference before the end of the year, where the possible resumption of formal negotiations would also be discussed.

Can this direct contact produce results?

Experienced observers of the Cyprus issue say no one can answer that with certainty. However, they acknowledge the value of an honest exchange of views at the highest level between the leaders of the two communities—an approach that could potentially change the direction of the Cyprus process.

The objective

At this stage, the aim of the meetings appears to involve both timing and method.

The two leaders are expected to meet again in Cyprus next week in the presence of the UN secretary-general’s personal envoy, María Ángela Holguín. Their contacts will then continue until the UN General Assembly begins in New York in late September.

The period until then could keep the process alive and give both sides room to maneuver before their separate meetings with Guterres in New York.

It could also allow them to develop a clearer understanding of where they agree and disagree and whether there is genuinely enough room to move the Cyprus process gradually back towards formal negotiations.

The bigger picture

Barring any unexpected developments, Christodoulides and Erhürman will present Guterres with the outcome of their meetings after September 18, during their separate talks with the UN chief.

If this is accompanied by a concrete result on confidence-building measures—such as a joint decision to open a new crossing point—it could clear the way for an announcement on convening an informal conference on Cyprus.

Sources familiar with the process believe this is achievable, even though the main disagreement remains the firm position taken by the Turkish Cypriot side.

Erhürman continues to insist on predetermined outcomes and on his long-standing demand for four prerequisites to be met before negotiations can resume.

Even so, the same sources remain cautiously optimistic. They believe the Cyprus issue will remain fluid until the end of the year, while the coming change at the helm of the United Nations could take the process into uncharted waters.

Questions of substance

The Greek Cypriot side appears focused on how to move the discussion towards the substance of the Cyprus problem.

It is seeking a negotiating method that would allow trade-offs across all the main issues. At the same time, it wants to make clear to the Turkish Cypriot side that accepting prerequisites would turn the clock back and undermine the framework of convergences recorded so far.

The Turkish Cypriot side, by contrast, appears to be seeking safeguards for what happens regardless of the outcome—whether the current deadlock continues or fresh negotiations begin but fail to produce an agreement.

Erhürman is not acting alone on this. He is also considering Turkey’s role in the broader picture, trying to maintain the necessary balance while avoiding any weakening of his position at home.

Well-informed sources say one important change has taken place since Guterres visited the island: the UN secretary-general has personally taken charge of the next steps.

This means that any final decision—particularly as he approaches the end of his term—will be his to announce and present publicly.

That point carries added weight, given that Guterres has previously wished the two communities “good luck.”