Yiannis Ioannou
An experienced observer of the Cyprus issue told Kathimerini on Friday afternoon that the previous 72 hours had produced more developments than the preceding six months of U.N. efforts to break the deadlock in the talks—with Antonio Guterres’ term as secretary-general drawing to a close.
Indeed, pressure that diplomatic sources attribute to the U.N., exerted through Maria Angela Holguin’s shuttle diplomacy, had by Thursday secured Monday’s meeting between the two leaders and the envoy at the residence of the head of the U.N. peacekeeping force in Cyprus. It also brought Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to the occupied north on Friday afternoon for a brief visit.
Fidan’s visit also had an electoral message, with the UBP-led administration under pressure ahead of elections in the occupied north and Cyprus developments offering little help.
Fidan, who has extensive experience with the Cyprus issue, came both to give direction to the Turkish Cypriot leadership and to reinforce Turkey’s wait-and-see approach. Ankara appears to have given the go-ahead for new crossing points while seeking to control the pace of diplomacy as Christodoulides, Holguin and Erhurman meet Monday. Throughout, it continues to insist on two states.
First a three-way meeting, then … another
When Holguin met Turkish Ambassador Ali Murat Basceri last Tuesday, drawing criticism from the Presidential Palace and Greek Cypriot parties, the U.N. was already working on two fronts. It was securing Monday’s meeting and delivering what amounted to an ultimatum to Ankara for a definitive answer on new crossings.
Guterres had twice made progress on crossings, a prerequisite—during his visit to Cyprus and again in New York in September.
Thursday’s report by the Turkish news agency ANKA that a package agreement on four crossings had been secured came with a further message, aimed at both the Greek Cypriot side and the U.N. Its meaning was clear. Announce the four crossings and demining, but that does not necessarily mean an international conference on Cyprus will follow.
The U.N.’s thinking was that announcements after Monday’s meeting could allow the two leaders to meet Guterres at a further three-way meeting. The secretary-general, incidentally, has been in Spain since Wednesday.
As Kathimerini understands it, whether that meeting could develop into an informal “5+1” conference—with the departing Portuguese U.N. chief inviting the foreign ministers of Greece, Turkey and Britain—will be decided at the last moment.
Well-informed sources say that, barring unforeseen developments, the leaders will announce both demining and the opening of crossings at Mia Milia, Athienou–Pyroi–Aglantzia, Louroujina–Lympia and Kambos–Karavostasi on Monday.
Fidan’s two-state message
According to sources familiar with the developments, Fidan’s visit served two purposes. On Friday, he met Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman, followed by the leadership of the self-declared “TRNC,” including its so-called prime minister, Ünal Üstel, and foreign minister, Tahsin Ertugruloglu.
Fidan set out the next steps in the process, reminding the Turkish Cypriot leadership of the limits within which it could negotiate, both on the approach to the talks and at Monday’s meeting.
After the visit, he returned to the language of a two-state solution.
In a post on X late Friday, Fidan said the most realistic settlement was the coexistence of two states on the island. Recognition of what he described as the Turkish Cypriot people’s inherent rights—sovereign equality and equal international status—was, he said, a fundamental prerequisite for a fair and lasting solution.
As the “motherland and guarantor power,” Turkey continued to support Turkish Cypriots in building a free, secure and prosperous future, he wrote. He again urged the international community to take account of Turkish Cypriots’ legitimate expectations and the realities on the island.
Turkey, he added, would continue to defend Turkish Cypriot rights and interests in every international forum and strengthen solidarity with the “TRNC” in all areas, in line with the vision President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had reiterated at the U.N. General Assembly.
Fidan thanked Turkish Cypriots for their hospitality and offered his congratulations ahead of the 43rd anniversary of the declaration of the “TRNC” on Nov. 15.
His visit also had an electoral dimension. The UBP-led right-wing administration is under pressure ahead of elections in the occupied north, and developments on Cyprus are doing little to help it.
What appears clear is that Turkey has approved the four crossings, overcoming objections related to military areas that had blocked progress under Ersin Tatar, with Kokkina remaining an exception. It still has reservations about the areas proposed for demining. Those objections have been conveyed by the Turkish Defense Ministry to the Foreign Ministry through the occupation forces.
In Turkish Cypriot media appearances last week, Erhürman sought to play down questions about the limits of his own decision-making powers on Cyprus, which Ankara has long constrained. He also undercut his predecessor, Tatar, who had accepted the opening of a crossing at Kokkina in New York in 2024.
Over the coming weeks, Turkey wants to keep the process moving, both to maintain its international standing and to allow practical measures, such as new crossings, to continue. At the same time, it appears willing to let the current status quo pass to the next U.N. secretary-general while avoiding responsibility for the failure to convene an informal international conference.
Maneuvering and the blame game
Last week’s intense diplomacy and faster pace of developments came with tactical maneuvering and attempts to assign blame on all sides.
Beyond its formal diplomatic protest over Holguín’s photograph with the Turkish ambassador in the occupied north, which it regarded as a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, the Greek Cypriot side was quick to present the three-way meeting announced by the U.N. as the result of Christodoulides’ proposals to improve negotiations on confidence-building measures.
That position countered a leak from Erhürman’s side weeks earlier over whether the Greek Cypriot side’s 19 proposals had been submitted orally or in writing.
The Turkish Cypriot side, meanwhile, appears caught between electoral considerations and a realistic understanding of how much room any Turkish Cypriot leader actually has to act. Sources speaking to Kathimerini suggest that this was the central message of Fidan’s brief, illegal visit Friday.
Turkey’s desire for movement on Cyprus, without necessarily returning to substantive negotiations, also appears to reflect three factors.
- The current international and European geopolitical environment offers little scope to link a breakthrough on Cyprus to major geopolitical benefits or concessions for Ankara. Regional developments, EU–Turkey relations, and Ankara’s relationship with Washington all shape that calculation.
- Turkey lacks confidence in Erhurman’s side.
- Ankara wants to control developments so it can minimize the cost of another deadlock or maximize any diplomatic gains from progress.
Whether Erhürman steps back after Monday from his insistence that political equality must be accepted in advance of a return to negotiations will depend on the instructions he received from Ankara.
Nicosia rejects that precondition and regards it as a red line. Continued Turkish insistence on it points to the worst-case scenario. Whether or not Guterres invites the leaders to a three-way meeting, the prospect of an international conference on Cyprus in 2026 could be buried.
The domestic repercussions are also apparent. Residents of the Tylliria region have expressed deep disappointment over the Kokkina crossing and accused Christodoulides’ side of failing to match its words with action.
The closing chapter
Holguín may have pushed for Monday’s meeting, but the same sources who describe the concentration of developments over the past 72 hours also speak of a process approaching its conclusion.
Holguín’s term ends at the close of the year, while Guterres is expected to be on leave ahead of his retirement in his native Portugal during the period before the holidays.
That means a meeting between the leaders and the secretary-general would have to take place in November. Only a positive outcome could turn it into an informal “5+1” conference in early December.
The closing chapter of this phase of the Cyprus process, with its current U.N. protagonists, is already being written. Indeed, it is nearing its end.
Even if no international conference takes place before the end of the year, that would not necessarily be bad news for Guterres. He would hand the unresolved Cyprus issue to his successor with new confidence-building measures as a starting point, having at least kept alive the effort to break the deadlock.
