Yiannis Ioannou
The meeting between President Nikos Christodoulides and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, focused on efforts to break the deadlock in the Cyprus talks, ended shortly after 6:30 p.m. Thursday.
The meeting followed Christodoulides’ talks Tuesday with the Secretary-General’s personal envoy, Maria Angela Holguin, to whom he presented a package of 19 proposals aimed at improving the situation and restarting negotiations. The latest round of Cyprus-related contacts on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will conclude Saturday, when Guterres is scheduled to meet Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman.
Expectations for progress on the Cyprus issue remain at the level of “cautious optimism.” Well-informed sources say the next stage will depend largely on how Guterres handles the various positions on the table, with the immediate goal of creating the conditions for a possible informal “5+1” conference on Cyprus in October and November as the latest practical window for such a meeting.
Well-informed sources told “K” that the UN Secretary-General appears to have one limitation, one prerequisite and one pressure point.
A positive atmosphere
Despite the signals Christodoulides sent from the UN General Assembly podium Wednesday evening, with Turkey as the clear target, well-informed sources said both his Thursday afternoon meeting with Guterres and his earlier meeting with Holguin took place in a positive atmosphere.
Nicosia is hoping for a favorable response to the proposals it presented as a way to improve conditions and restart the talks. Much will now depend on how Erhurman presents his position to Guterres on Saturday and where Turkey ultimately stands in the process.
The key questions surrounding Ankara’s approach are whether it intends to maintain that the current effort has failed and allow no movement on the Cyprus issue through the end of the year, or whether it will support the convening of a Five-Party conference shortly before Guterres’ term ends.
Such a conference could, however, be deliberately steered toward failure on the central objective of breaking the deadlock in the talks, creating what the sources describe as an “organic” process for a change in the negotiating framework.
What Guterres has in mind
Well-informed sources told “K” that the UN Secretary-General appears to have one limitation, one prerequisite and one pressure point.
More specifically, Guterres understands that the window for holding a Five-Party conference is being narrowed by the end of his term, leaving October and November as the key months. December is considered a transitional month because his term will be ending.
He is also seeking, through his separate meetings with the two leaders, to secure an agreement on confidence-building measures, particularly at crossing points, so that he can leave the process with a concrete positive development.
His pressure card regarding Turkey also remains relevant following his invitation to Ankara to convene an international conference. Regardless of Turkey’s intentions, an invitation at this level from the Secretary-General to the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cannot be ruled out.
In any case, Guterres is expected to take steps and make announcements in the coming period that could shape the next phase of the Cyprus talks. Christodoulides had pointed to this possibility on his first day in New York and again in a statement following his meeting with the Secretary-General, saying the coming moves would determine the direction of developments on the Cyprus issue.
