Alexis Papachelas
“Good morning, France. Welcome to what Greece went through in 2010.” I have always believed that France is the hardest country in Europe to reform and that if it were forced to do what we did under the bailout agreements, we would see another storming of the Bastille. We all love France because it embodies so much of what we do not want Europe to lose: tradition, culture, the welfare state, a relaxed way of life. If France loses its “soul,” Europe will lose its own, too.
But we have seen this film before. In the battle between the “soul” and the markets, the markets almost always win—unless we are on the eve of a revolution. By the markets’ Anglo-Saxon standards, France is an exceptionally spoiled country. For far too many years, it sustained an extensive welfare state on borrowed money. The French establishment saw what was coming but could do nothing about it. Politically and in terms of communication, Macron was an exceptionally clever answer to the problem. But he could not persuade the average French citizen or the political system to embrace cuts and reforms. A large part of France had, meanwhile, turned to the right in a justified reaction to the burqa’s symbolic dominance in many neighborhoods and areas.
Now we seem to be reaching the breaking point. France is living through days reminiscent of the Bastille or May 1968. On the horizon, the strongest contenders for the presidency appear to be a far-right candidate and a far-left one—the latter even copying our own anti-bailout politicians and wanting to wipe out part of the debt.
A weakened France in crisis, in the midst of a mad and unpredictable world, is bad news. Not just for France, but for all of us. A prolonged economic and political crisis will have consequences for Europe and Greece. Macron is already on his way out, enjoying popularity outside France.
This is, of course, a serious country, with established institutions and a robust private sector. I do not know how you say “U-turn” in French, but most likely France will go through everything we went through and ultimately be forced into a brutal adjustment to the markets’ demands. Someone regarded today as an extremist will do what French society now considers unthinkable.
Until then, there will be plenty of blah-blah, major upheaval, and riots. We lived through it all—earlier.
