Alexis Papachelas
When empires collapse or shrink, they usually leave behind a “black hole” along with a long list of unresolved problems that someone else is expected to sort out. The Ottoman Empire fell apart, and the British stepped in to draw artificial borders, creating new states while making a series of conflicting promises to Jews and Palestinians.
Much of what we are experiencing today can be traced back to those decisions, which shaped the future of the Middle East. Then came the decline of the British Empire after World War II, along with its increasingly desperate effort to hold on to its colonial spheres of influence. In Iran, Britain tried to keep control of oil through the Anglo-Iranian company in a blunt and heavy-handed way. It could not do it alone, so it pulled in the successor Western power, the United States.
When the British faced the nationalization of their company, they persuaded Dwight D. Eisenhower that if he did not intervene, Iran would fall to the communists and ultimately to Moscow. In the intense climate of the Cold War, the first major global operation of the Central Intelligence Agency followed, aimed at overthrowing Iranian prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.
Before the coup, the Americans tried to negotiate, but they ran into a leader who made it clear he had no interest in compromise. He argued that foreign involvement was ultimately about reducing Iran to something smaller, tracing that threat all the way back to the destruction of Persepolis by Alexander the Great. American officials were struck by conversations with ordinary citizens who said they did not care if they went hungry, because no one would be able to exploit Iranian oil if the British left. U.S. technocrats interpreted these attitudes as a mix of patriotism and a Shiite sense of martyrdom. Given that historical weight, it is easy to imagine how the idea that someone else should control Iran’s oil sounds to Iranians today.
Now the map of the Middle East is being redrawn. The Gulf states are in shock and looking for new alliances, uneasy about relying on what used to be called the American umbrella. Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for what he calls a final victory, whatever the cost, both on the battlefield and at the ballot box. China is waiting. Donald Trump will try to show that history can be bent, that Gaza could become a Riviera and Iran could turn into Texas.
