Alexis Papachelas
France is a country that does not reform, at least not without blood and plenty of protest. Its history proves this. In fact, it is from France that we ourselves imported large doses of the culture of questioning and dissent.
But now the country has reached a dead end. For many years it had been simmering, yet somehow it managed to continue a way of life admired by the rest of Europe. To the casual visitor, it was always striking that in a touristy provincial town it was rare to find a proper place to eat during lunch hours. That way of life and the social state that sustains it can no longer be maintained. It is far too expensive, and the famed markets are no longer willing to finance it with tolerable interest rates. They demand reforms and cuts, reforms and cuts that simply cannot pass politically. The paradox is how mild these reforms are compared to what happened in Greece during the bailout years. The French equivalents would trigger a Bastille Day multiplied by a hundred.
Yet here we are. The Eurozone cannot and is not ready to manage a French debt crisis, the numbers are simply enormous. The only way to handle it would be for Germany to shoulder the cost, paying higher borrowing rates itself. That would be a recipe for political disaster for anyone in Berlin who dared to take that step.
Macron was a brilliant idea of the French establishment, meant to save the situation by promoting a modern, reformist technocrat. He has taken it as far as he can. He himself seems worn down under the pressure of real dead ends and by a toxicity that spreads everywhere. It is a pity for Europe, because he is the only leader capable of articulating ambitions and concrete proposals. Yet he has deflated and cannot offer anything more.
France is entering a crisis that will last a long time. The political crisis could be another cycle pushing both France and the rest of Europe further to the right. The storm of a fiscal crisis would be another matter entirely, because it would shake the whole European edifice. We will feel it here too, no matter how shielded we are by secured debt.
