Alexis Papachelas
Five months remain until the next US president is sworn in. Five very fluid and dangerous months. Everyone knows that President Joe Biden is on his way out. His power and influence are waning with each passing day. This would not be particularly remarkable if we were not experiencing a period of unimaginable geopolitical instability. It is very rare to have so many dangerous fronts open at the same time. The war in Ukraine may be entering its final phase, but it seems that it still hides several surprises. The war in the Middle East is deepening and expanding. The tension between China and Taiwan remains unabated.
Powerful players on the global political chessboard see the coming months as either an opportunity or a suffocating deadline. Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu believes that Biden will have less and less power while remaining trapped in the doctrine of full support for Israel. Practically, this means that he will take things to extremes, as long as he can afford to. His goal is political survival. But also, if possible, forcing as many Palestinians as possible to flee from Gaza and the West Bank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hitting back and is basically waiting for Biden, whom he sees as his main rival in the West, to go. He obviously prefers Republican candidate Donald Trump in power or a weak Kamala Harris who will not be able to easily secure congressional support for further strengthening Kyiv. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also knows this, and understands that at some point in 2025 the time will come for the final negotiation. And that’s why he is also trying to improve his hand with unpredictable moves.
The danger is that someone will try something completely unpredictable and dangerous in the next five months, thinking that Biden’s long exit from politics is a unique opportunity to do it without consequences. It could be Putin, it could be Iran’s Ali Khamenei, it could even be Chinese President Xi Jinping or any other leader who sees the US in deep crisis and a post-American world emerging.
At the moment everyone is trying to guess who will win the November US election, which has suddenly become much more unpredictable and interesting, and then to predict what Trump’s or Harris’ victory will mean for American foreign policy. Most agree that the election of the current vice president will mean the continuation of the current foreign policy, in a “lighter” version. And that Trump will rule without taking into consideration any institutional balances, as he did in his first term.
