Pavlos Xanthoulis
Every time our government opens its mouth and lays out new lofty goals and grand ambitions, the oven gets preheated, the temperature rises, there is sometimes even a sense of admiration, and President Nikos Christodoulides, playing the role of chef, prepares yet another political cake, hoping to serve it to Cypriot society.
A few weeks ago, our President broke the ratings when he described the British Bases in Cyprus as a “colonial relic.” Even more striking was what followed after the attack on the base in Akrotiri, when he announced an “open and sincere discussion” with London. This was widely read as an official hint that Nicosia might follow the UK–Mauritius agreement on the Chagos Islands, with the goal of transferring sovereignty of the British Bases to the Republic of Cyprus and possibly leasing them back to Britain under a framework of provided facilities.
Those official hints sent the issue soaring and earned President Christodoulides political points, regardless of how the cake might actually taste. It rose even higher when he secured a reference in the European Conclusions stating that the EU “recognizes Cyprus’s intention to initiate discussions with the United Kingdom regarding the UK Bases in Cyprus and stands ready to provide assistance as needed.” As a well-informed EU source explained to Kathimerini, that assistance αφορά the technical and legal side of such discussions, much like the EU’s role during Brexit when it supported Nicosia in reaching the necessary Protocol to ensure, for example, that no border or customs checks would be imposed within the Bases.
So this paragraph can hardly be seen as meaningful political backing for Nicosia’s positions. It is simply an indication of possible technical and legal support if negotiations with London ever take place and lead somewhere. Even so, the cake stayed inflated, even after British Defence Under-Secretary Al Carns stated in The Daily Telegraph that “the legal status of the Sovereign Base Areas is unwavering,” making clear that London does not even see a basis for discussion.
It also did not deflate when the Christodoulides narrative about supposedly “greater EU involvement in the Cyprus issue” quietly faded away. Nor did it deflate when it became obvious that the idea of linking EU–Turkey relations to a solution of the Cyprus problem exists only in our government’s imagination and has never taken shape in Brussels. In reality, Brussels has sent the European Investment Bank to Ankara in search of new development projects, eased visa access for Turkish citizens, activated all high-level EU–Turkey dialogues, invited Ankara to Gymnich meetings, and is even discussing an upgrade of the Customs Union. Meanwhile, the Cyprus issue remains stuck, drifting between a buffer zone and stagnation, reduced to confidence-building measures within a framework of good neighborly relations between two constituent states.
The cake also keeps rising on speculation about a possible initiative by António Guterres toward the end of his term. Based on current realities, these scenarios carry about as much weight as the idea that London would sit down with Nicosia to discuss transferring sovereignty of the Bases to the Republic of Cyprus.
The same inflation applies to Article 42(7) of the EU Treaty, the mutual assistance clause that President Christodoulides invokes. He creates the impression that EU member states would rush to form a strong defensive shield around Cyprus and deter any potential threat, including one from Turkey. In reality, the clause is officially considered secondary to NATO, which Turkey is part of. It also does not commit EU countries to military assistance, only to a general form of support that could include intelligence sharing or diplomatic help.
In short, it amounts to nothing. No matter how much Nicosia tries to see the glass as half full and keep the cake half risen, the broader collapse across its policy ambitions is hard to miss.
