Pavlos Xanthoulis
Brussels is preparing action on four fronts, working closely with Berlin and Paris, with the goal of keeping energy prices under control across the EU’s 27 member states as concerns grow about a renewed crisis in the Middle East. While Berlin sees Donald Trump’s decision to block the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports as a tactical move, the uncertainty surrounding recent developments and the volatility coming from Washington have pushed the EU to develop backup plans to support its members.
Despite reports that the United States and Iran may soon resume talks in Pakistan, the EU is moving ahead with its own measures. These were discussed in detail at a recent meeting of the College of Commissioners, where a “Temporary Crisis Framework” took center stage as a way to manage the situation.
The Commission’s planning reflects both Trump’s unpredictable approach and the impact of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports. About 1.7 million barrels of oil per day were moving through those routes during April, with China as the main buyer. If that supply disappears, energy prices are expected to climb further worldwide while oil availability tightens. This concern was raised during the Commissioners’ discussions.
With the risk of escalation still present and uncertainty continuing, Brussels has begun talks with all member states on loosening state aid rules. Several governments have pushed for this step to support businesses and households dealing with higher energy costs, which the Commission estimates have already exceeded €22 billion just 44 days after the war began.
On April 22, two days before an informal European Council meeting expected to take place in Cyprus, the Commission plans to announce a “toolbox” designed to limit energy price increases. This effort will be paired with a legislative proposal to adjust electricity taxes, likely in May, and progress on the EU’s grid expansion package, which aims to strengthen Europe’s electricity network by early summer. An updated framework for the Emissions Trading System is also on track, with revisions expected in July, according to Ursula von der Leyen.
The Commission president called the immediate restoration of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz critical for global security. She also warned that instability in Lebanon could derail efforts toward peace in the region, urging all parties to respect the country’s sovereignty and move toward a full ceasefire.
EU High Representative Kaja Kallas took a sharper tone regarding the roles of the United States and Israel. Speaking at the UN Security Council, she compared Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with the conflict in the Middle East, arguing that both represent the most serious breakdown of international law since World War II.
Support measures
Based on current developments in the Middle East and after consultations with all 27 member states, the Commission is expected to present a proposal in April to relax state aid rules. This will be part of a broader package aimed at limiting the effects of the energy crisis linked to the war in Iran. The College of Commissioners met Monday just before Trump moved forward with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports, a step that reflects Brussels’ concern about a prolonged energy crisis that could affect supply within the EU.
The upcoming toolbox, set to be announced on April 22, will include plans to fill natural gas storage facilities, coordinate the release of strategic oil reserves, and provide guidance on temporary tax cuts for energy bills. Additional measures to reduce energy demand are also expected. These may draw from the International Energy Agency’s 10-point plan, which includes lower speed limits on highways, up to three days of remote work per week, and car-free Sundays in major cities.
New warning on GSI
Von der Leyen also urged member states to complete work on the EU grid package by early summer 2026. In Cyprus, progress remains stalled due to the island’s continued energy isolation and delays in the Great Sea Interconnector project. The delays stem from disagreements between Nicosia and Athens, the need for updated feasibility studies, and obstacles raised by Turkey.
The Commission is also expected to release updated benchmarks for the Emissions Trading System soon. The system has recently become a point of political tension and is especially important for Cyprus. Von der Leyen confirmed that the planned revision remains on schedule for July.
EU and Hungary head toward major negotiations
A significant round of negotiations is beginning to take shape, drawing attention away from the Commission’s initial recommendations and the position of Hungary’s newly elected leader, Peter Magyar, who is expected to replace Viktor Orbán after 16 years as prime minister.
Following strong support from Brussels after Magyar’s decisive win in the April 12 elections and statements about Hungary returning to the European path, attention has shifted to rebuilding EU-Hungary relations, which faced repeated strain during Orbán’s time in office.
Brussels expects that once Magyar takes office, likely between May 5 and 12, Hungary will take four key steps. These include approving €90 billion in EU loans to Ukraine, which Orbán had blocked, approving the 20th sanctions package against Russia, lifting objections to Ukraine’s EU membership path, and moving forward with rule-of-law reforms.
Magyar has already said, after a phone call with von der Leyen, that he plans to remove Hungary’s objections to EU loans for Ukraine. He has not yet taken a clear position on the other issues, a stance that may connect to expectations that frozen EU funds for Hungary could be released. Hungary stands to lose around €10.4 billion in Recovery and Resilience Facility loans, €7 billion from cohesion funds, and €16 billion from SAFE defense loans. At the same time, the country pays €1 million per day in fines to the European Court of Justice for violations of EU migration rules.
An EU source told Kathimerini that both the Commission’s demands and Hungary’s financial losses are likely to become part of a large negotiation process following discussions between von der Leyen and Magyar.
