Pavlos Xanthoulis
The consequences of the joint U.S.–Israel attack on Iran are causing growing concern among the EU’s 27 member states, as sources tell Kathimerini that the European External Action Service’s Crisis Response and Information Centre believes Tehran is pursuing a strategy aimed at “creating chaos,” carrying out indiscriminate strikes across several countries in the region, with Cyprus among those affected.
According to the Centre’s strategic assessment presented to EU foreign ministers, the coming days are expected to determine the scale and direction of Iran’s response along three main fronts: direct threats to EU territory, where fears of terrorist attacks dominate; Iran’s stance in the Strait of Hormuz; and broader maritime security and navigation.
Should the crisis escalate further or drag on, managing its consequences is expected to become significantly more difficult.
Europeans at risk
Minutes from successive meetings of the EU’s Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism (IPCR), foreign ministers and the Committee of Permanent Representatives, reviewed by Kathimerini, highlight serious concern over the safety of European citizens across the wider Middle East.
The concern extends beyond roughly 4,000 Europeans living in Iran to an estimated one million EU citizens residing throughout the region (excluding tourists).
Crisis Management Commissioner Hadja Lahbib briefed member states, stressing that the safety of European citizens remains the EU’s “highest priority.” However, the absence of a clear evacuation or crisis-management plan was evident. The sheer scale of Europeans in the region makes large-scale planning extremely difficult, while the EU’s limited presence and tools on the ground restrict its role largely to consular assistance.
EU officials summarized the situation bluntly: “This is the largest consular crisis of recent years, involving so many countries.”
During the foreign ministers’ meeting, Germany, Sweden, Finland and the Czech Republic warned that developments in Iran must not distract from continued support for Ukraine.
Migration fears and humanitarian risks
At the same time, the European Commission’s humanitarian arm (DG ECHO) warned of potential population movements centered on 2.5 million Afghans currently living in Iran who could face displacement.
Officials cautioned that if the crisis continues, the humanitarian impact could resemble the scale of the 2015 migration crisis, potentially triggering new migration pressures on EU member states. The possibility of Afghan migration flows has already raised concern in Turkey, with the issue reportedly discussed between EU Commissioner Magnus Brunner and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Energy and shipping concerns
Following warnings from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer safe, shipping companies are already exploring alternative routes.
EU briefings noted that roughly 20 million barrels of oil, about 20% of global consumption, pass daily through the strait. Around 2,000 of the 3,330 ships transiting the passage each day sail under EU member-state flags.
Although the EU does not directly import Iranian oil, officials fear disruptions to maritime traffic could drive up energy prices and destabilize supply chains. Natural gas prices have already risen by roughly 20%, while oil prices are also climbing. Further escalation could disrupt imports, particularly energy supplies from Qatar.
Security risks multiply
Beyond energy and migration concerns, EU crisis meetings identified additional risks:
- Ukraine: Officials warned that U.S. and Israeli ammunition use in Iran could affect American stockpiles, potentially impacting military support to Ukraine. Brussels continues to view the Ukraine war as a higher strategic priority.
- Terrorism: The possibility of terrorist attacks within EU member states was discussed at a special European Commission meeting focused on security. Authorities agreed to increase vigilance across Europol and national security services.
- Airspace disruptions: The closure of airspace across several countries, including Qatar, Syria, Bahrain, Israel, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran, is complicating travel and potential evacuations of European citizens. Major hubs such as Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dubai have already been affected.
- Economic and human rights risks: EU officials warned that a weakened but surviving Iranian regime could lead to economic deterioration and setbacks in human rights.
- Humanitarian needs: Aid requirements are expected to surge across Iran and the wider region. The EU says it is ready to increase humanitarian assistance, although it lacks bilateral aid programs with Iran, complicating delivery efforts. Infrastructure damage, including hospitals, power networks and schools, has reportedly affected civilian areas, with early estimates exceeding 700 deaths and more than 1,000 injuries as of last Wednesday.
- Gaza: The EU also reported worsening conditions in Gaza, where all crossings remain closed and humanitarian operations face growing obstacles.
Tehran’s “strategy of chaos”
According to EU briefings, Iran appears to be investing in a strategy designed to create regional instability, explaining attacks reported in several countries, including Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Turkey.
EU analysts believe Iran’s next moves may focus on three areas:
- the Strait of Hormuz
- maritime security and shipping routes
- potential threats inside EU territory, particularly terrorism
EU officials described the joint U.S.–Israel military campaign as a “final battle” aimed at eliminating Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities. The operations have targeted air defenses, radar systems and missile infrastructure but are expected to continue, as no ground invasion is planned.
A quick resolution is considered unlikely unless internal unrest leads to the collapse of Iran’s leadership.
By last Wednesday, Israel had reportedly struck around 500 targets, while Iran restricted internet access to limit information flows. Several senior Iranian figures, including top leadership members, were reported killed, leaving no clear interim leadership structure.
EU officials also noted that Iranian-backed proxy groups had not yet responded militarily, despite Iranian strikes reported across multiple regional countries including Iraq, Bahrain, Jordan, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
