Kathimerini Greece Newsroom
A classified CIA assessment delivered to the US government this week has concluded that Iran could withstand a US naval blockade for at least three to four months before facing more serious economic strain, according to multiple US officials cited by The Washington Post.
The findings appear to challenge recent claims by Donald Trump that the conflict is nearing its end and that Iran’s military capabilities have been largely destroyed.
According to the report, Tehran may be in a far stronger position than public rhetoric suggests, with officials warning that Iran could continue operating by finding alternative ways to move oil and maintain revenue even under heavy sanctions and military pressure.
One US official said Iran could potentially use rail networks and land routes through Central Asia to continue smuggling oil if sea routes become blocked.
While such routes would not fully replace maritime exports, they could provide enough economic breathing room to help the country avoid immediate collapse.
“The blockade is causing real damage,” one US official said, describing falling revenues, disrupted trade and increasing economic pressure inside Iran. But another official reportedly warned that Iran’s leadership has historically shown a willingness to endure hardship and suppress internal unrest for long periods.
“The leadership has become more radical and more determined,” the official said, adding that other heavily sanctioned regimes have survived for years despite embargoes and military campaigns.
The CIA assessment also reportedly found that Iran still retains much of its military capability despite weeks of strikes by the US and Israel.
According to one official, Iran still possesses around 75% of its mobile missile launchers and roughly 70% of its ballistic missile stockpile from before the war began.
Officials also believe Tehran has managed to restore many underground missile and drone storage sites and continue assembling weapons that were already close to completion when fighting erupted.
Those estimates sharply contrast with Trump’s recent public comments claiming Iranian missile capabilities were “almost eliminated.”
The conflicting messages highlight growing uncertainty over how the conflict could evolve — and how long economic and military pressure can realistically be sustained.
For Cyprus, developments in the region are being watched particularly closely.
The island sits just a short flight from the Middle East and has already felt the ripple effects of regional instability in recent years, from rising fuel prices and tourism uncertainty to security concerns and emergency evacuation planning.
Any prolonged conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel could further affect energy markets, shipping routes and the wider eastern Mediterranean economy — issues that directly impact Cyprus, where households and businesses are still grappling with high living costs and economic uncertainty.
Cyprus has often found itself geographically close to crises it cannot control, making every escalation in the region feel less like distant foreign policy and more like something unfolding just beyond the horizon.
