Thanasis Photiou
We are in the final stretch before the parliamentary elections on May 24. In just the first four months of 2026, we have already lived through everything. There was a “hybrid war” marked by leaked videos, then an actual war with missiles, fighter jets, and aircraft carriers. There was an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease that wiped out tens of thousands of animals. Public figures once considered above suspicion were dragged into court. We even saw “Storm Santi,” one of those new-generation, slower-moving cyclones that linger over a region for long periods.
Three weeks before the polls open, public debate is focused on the “top-tier race.” Who is ahead between DISY and AKEL? Who still has room to consolidate support? Can DISY hold on to first place and avoid the turbulence caused by declining numbers? Can AKEL pull off a comeback and, despite its losses, capture the momentum? The margins are tight, the polls shift constantly, and the idea of a head-to-head race keeps getting recycled. Gradually, the “top spot” is being framed as the main prize of this election.
Of course, in politics everything matters. Substance matters and so do impressions. But that does not mean impressions are substance. At the very least, not always. And certainly not in this election. If anything stands out clearly from the polling data of recent months, it is that the top has already reached its limits. The two major parties operate within a narrow range. At times they are squeezed by undecided voters, and at other times they benefit when voter preferences start to solidify. Even so, the gap between them, no matter how much it feeds headlines, cannot reshape the political landscape. In simple terms, the race at the top may be close, but it is not decisive. However first place ends up being recorded, it will not determine what comes next on its own.
What will shape the next day is the new normal that is forming beneath the top and the real shifts taking place there. First, ELAM is no longer just a “phenomenon.” It is now an established reality. Its steady percentages, low volatility, and cohesive voter base make it one of the few stable elements in an otherwise fluid environment. ELAM is solidifying its position as a third force. It is not trying to claim space. It already holds it, and it does so in a way that will be difficult to reverse in the final weeks.
Even so, that may not be the most significant change. The most dynamic shift appears to be happening in the center, especially with the rise of ALMA. This is where DIKO is not only losing support but also losing its role. If the polls are confirmed at the ballot box, what will emerge in its place is a new and far less stable landscape. Unlike ELAM, ALMA’s growth is not based on consolidation but on movement. It draws support from multiple directions. Some voters are leaving DIKO. Others come from the so-called “looser” vote that used to lean toward larger parties. There is also a portion of undecided voters who are beginning to settle on a choice and are looking for an alternative.
At the same time, Direct Democracy reflects another version of this same fluidity. It is more anti-system and less institutional, but it points to the same trend. A segment of the electorate is moving away from traditional party structures. The result is a center that is no longer unified. It is fragmenting, reshaping itself, and becoming increasingly unpredictable.
So, with three weeks to go before the vote, the full picture may not be entirely clear. Still, one thing is certain. The real stake is not the top spot. The outcome will not be decided by who finishes first, but by who reshapes the political field. That shift may appear in the headlines the next day, but its true significance will become clear in what follows.
