Thanasis Photiou
The parliamentary elections on May 24 are, by all indications, set to be the vote that reshapes Cyprus’ political map as it has been known for decades. With voting becoming increasingly less ideological and more anti-establishment, the country’s party system appears to be undergoing a deep tectonic shift, moving away from the familiar two-pole structure, where the so-called “center space” acted as kingmaker, toward something entirely different: a multi-centered, personality-driven, and unstable political era marked by new forces, weak ideological ties, and fluid alliances.
The end of the old political geometry
The traditional structure of Cypriot politics, built around two dominant poles, DISY and AKEL, with the “center” (DIKO, EDEK, the Greens and later DIPA) acting as the balance-maker in presidential elections, now appears to be coming to an end.
The biggest change is not only the weakening of the two main parties but also the breakdown of the center itself, which is losing its historic role as the system’s regulator.
For years, DIKO could help elect a president or block one. EDEK often played a key supporting role in governing coalitions. Even smaller parties could gain outsized influence through the second round of presidential elections. At times, the centrist bloc could act as a unified force, presenting itself as a third pole in Cypriot politics.
Today, that structure is collapsing.
DIKO is weakening in polls, EDEK is fighting for parliamentary survival, the Greens are struggling to maintain relevance, and DIPA is hovering on the edge of political disappearance. Even combined, these parties no longer have the weight to act as the system’s balance-maker.
This marks a major shift from a time when the leader of either main party could secure enough support to reach the second round of the presidential election without alliances.
First real stress test
The election of the next House president is emerging as the first real “stress test” of the new balance of power.
With the political map fragmenting, alliances before and after the election are becoming a matter of survival rather than strategy. Future cooperation will no longer be based on dominant electoral percentages, which may no longer exist, but on the need to stitch together even the smallest fractions of support to secure power.
Four emerging political scenarios
As party strengths shift, four main alliance scenarios are emerging ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
1. Scenario: Christodoulides re-election bid
This scenario is based on President Nikos Christodoulides seeking a second term, continuing the broad, cross-party image that brought him to power in 2023.
He would aim to maintain a “inclusive governance” narrative, relying on his current governing base and centrist forces.
Core support would likely include DIKO and DIPA, with possible cooperation from individual EDEK figures and independent personalities.
However, tensions within the coalition and dissatisfaction over governance and the Cyprus issue could weaken cohesion. Support from centrist parties may become more transactional than enthusiastic, driven more by political survival than alignment.
2. Center-right bloc led by DISY
This scenario envisions DISY attempting to rebuild a strong center-right alliance to end its political isolation and return to power.
A key pillar would be an effort to bring DIKO into cooperation, potentially through political bargaining rather than ideological alignment.
One possible deal discussed in political circles involves the presidency of the House of Representatives, either as part of an arrangement benefiting DIKO leader Nikolas Papadopoulos or as part of broader institutional negotiations involving other key positions.
DIPA is seen as a likely and relatively easy partner due to its weakened position and need for survival.
A major challenge for DISY is managing voter losses to the far right. This includes tougher rhetoric on migration and security, alongside informal political bridges with ELAM to influence second-round dynamics.
3. Progressive front under AKEL
Recent tensions between former audit office chief and “Alma” movement leader Odysseas Michaelides and AKEL secretary-general Stefanos Stefanou have effectively closed the door on any cooperation.
As a result, AKEL is shifting toward a broader progressive alliance focused on environmental policy, rule of law, transparency, and social justice.
The planned coalition would likely include AKEL, the Greens, and Volt, while excluding Alma.
The main challenge is the absence of a strong populist anti-establishment figure, which weakens its appeal among protest voters, making the first round particularly difficult.
4. A strong “Alma” as a disruptor or kingmaker
The “Alma” movement, led by Odysseas Michaelides, is positioning itself as a standalone anti-establishment force, fully capitalizing on public dissatisfaction.
Its message focuses on anti-corruption, institutional accountability, and a break from traditional party politics.
Rather than traditional alliances, Alma seeks support from civil society figures, disillusioned politicians from the center space, and non-parliamentary groups.
Michaelides himself is expected to run for president, with the goal of reaching the second round. If successful, he could overturn decades of political balance.
Even if he does not reach the runoff, a strong result would make him a decisive kingmaker, forcing the leading candidates to adopt stricter reform commitments to win over his voters.
