Alexis Papachelas
Even if a “normal” politician wins the next U.S. presidential election, Europe will find it hard to trust the United States again. What it is going through right now has convinced even the most committed Atlanticists that something has to change. We still need to see what happens by the end of the current president’s term, because nothing is certain. Will NATO remain as we know it, or will Trump choose to retaliate against Europe by pulling a critical mass of U.S. forces out of the Old Continent, or even by ending America’s role in the Alliance? Will he try again to push a confrontation over Greenland, and where could that lead? Will he step away from the war in Ukraine and leave Europe to deal with Moscow on its own? These questions are all critical, but none of them have easy answers.
Europe, though, is changing. What President Macron once said about the need for European strategic autonomy used to sound naive or idealistic. Today, it sits at the center of discussions among Europe’s political leadership. Germany, for the first time since World War II, is becoming a major military power. What that will mean in the future, especially if a government includes the AfD, is impossible to predict. In practical terms, however, Germany is set to overtake France, which until now has been Europe’s leading military force. The United Kingdom is also facing a tough dilemma. It is beginning to realize it does not carry much weight in Washington, yet it has little influence outside the EU. Once it fully recognizes how constrained its position has become, it will have to confront whether Brexit was a mistake and whether there is a way to rebuild a close relationship with Europe while preserving appearances.
Europe is waking up from the long postwar comfort of prosperity and from relying on the United States for its security. The illusions are over, and the coming winter will make that even clearer. Some may still prefer a Europe that is soft and stuck in toothless consensus, but Trump and the course of events have already pushed it in a different direction. The first step will be building a more tightly integrated Europe among a smaller group of countries that can make decisions faster and more effectively.
