Alexis Papachelas
It would be fascinating to know what leaders in Beijing are thinking as the war in the Middle East unfolds. China has shown that it sees itself as a systemic player and dislikes international turbulence that threatens the global economy as well as its own. Iran is also a close strategic ally, one Beijing certainly does not want to see weakened so dramatically after the attacks by the United States and Israel. Yet Beijing also appears unable to do anything effective, either through air defense or intelligence support, to protect the regime in Tehran. With each passing day, it becomes clearer that Washington has complete freedom of action and a large arsenal of options. This is especially true when it works closely with Israel, which continues to show that it operates on a different level when it comes to intelligence gathering, covert operations, and new technologies.
China, however, is known for its strategic patience. It is not driven by the traditional American urgency to solve problems that may ultimately be unsolvable. Most likely it is waiting for the United States to spend alliances, ammunition, and vast sums of money in yet another prolonged war. The many fronts Trump has opened in Venezuela, Greenland, and now Iran are consuming energy and valuable political capital.
President Xi also has his own problems to manage, and there are plenty of them. China’s economy depends heavily on the health of the global economy. Xi has removed the top leadership of the armed forces in a very short period of time, which means the military will need time to regroup if he truly has Taiwan in mind for 2027. What he is probably hoping for is that the United States suffers a prolonged drain that gradually weakens it.
The paradox, however, remains the same. Successive American presidents declare their intention to focus on the Far East, meaning the challenge posed by China as a rising power, only to find themselves pulled back into the Middle East. They seem to become hostages to history, to the geopolitical games, the influence, and the immense wealth concentrated in the region. That is what we are witnessing again now. A president elected on the promise of avoiding foreign entanglements and focusing squarely on China is instead consumed by yet another war in the Middle East.
