Yiannis Ioannou
No one expected that al-Jolani, a man who began his journey in the Salafi jihadism of al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, would lead such a counteroffensive from the anti-Assad Sunni opposition. In just eight days, his forces managed to capture Aleppo and Hama, Syria’s second and fourth largest cities. The international community has been watching in surprise, particularly in the wake of Biden’s transition to Trump, and after the events in Gaza and Lebanon, as a man who, in 2016, was severing the ties between his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and al-Qaeda — still seemingly a jihadist — now speaks inclusively of Syria’s Christians and Kurds.
Of course, whether HTS will survive and whether it truly stands by its declarations remains to be seen. After all, the Syrian conflict has always been marked by fragile balances, rampant sectarian violence, and the cynical Shiite politics of Iran, Hezbollah, and the Assad regime, which, alongside Russia, heavily bombarded Aleppo in 2015. This bombardment contributed to the largest refugee crisis in Europe in the 21st century.
The Syrian issue has also become a battleground for incredible whataboutism, a complete lack of understanding — especially in Greece and Cyprus — of the developments on the ground, and an inability to grasp the ideological, religious, and social transformations occurring. We've already heard about “Turkish jihadists,” “Zionist conspiracies,” and other ridiculous dualisms. Moreover, on social media, we witness the collapse of Assad and Russia apologists (they go hand in hand) who wish death upon Palestinian journalists — particularly one whose relatives were killed in Israeli airstrikes — for expressing solidarity with Syrians. They even claim that the Israelis’ actions in Gaza were justified.
This highlights how the Syrian conflict has always tested the true intentions of those who never truly cared for the Palestinians, yet view imperialism and colonialism only in the West, but not in Iran or Russia. In the Greek-speaking world, some far-right party supporters, such as those of “Niki” and “Hellenic Solution,” have suddenly recalled the plight of Syrian Christians, accusing the Greek government of abandoning them. It is an incredible field of misinformation and propaganda, fueled by nationalism, left-wing ideology, partial knowledge, and an inability to understand what has transpired in a country that has been in crisis since 2011.
The future of Syria remains highly dynamic, with many possible outcomes, given the significant involvement of both state and non-state actors, the geopolitical consequences for the entire Middle East, and the difficult days ahead, particularly if Bashar al-Assad is removed from power. What is happening now is unprecedented, world-historical, and reminiscent of the events of 2011.
For Cyprus, Syria holds particular significance for many understandable reasons. These developments must be taken seriously, with a complete understanding of the dynamics on the ground and preparation for the next phase, whether it involves Assad’s survival or his removal. Most importantly, it also serves as a testing ground for many aspects of our foreign policy, which, since 2011, has been lacking compared to a more proactive and engaged stance — one from which we could have derived multiple benefits from the role we could have played.
[This article was translated from its Greek original]
