The dust has yet to settle in Syria

By Costa Constanti*

Many Syrian parents at my child’s school expressed a desire to return home now that Bashar al-Assad’s regime has collapsed. I urged them to wait. Syria remains far from safe or stable. After 53 years of Assad family rule and nearly 14 years of devastating civil war, normalcy will not return anytime soon.

The power vacuum left by Assad’s departure has triggered competing interests scrambling for control. When Assad’s plane departed for asylum in Moscow, it marked not the end of violence and instability but the start of a new, uncertain chapter. While this moment holds potential for greatness, complacency is dangerous. As seen in Libya and Iraq after the fall of Gaddafi and Hussein, power vacuums can plunge countries into chaos, foreign interference, and deeper divisions.

The militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which seized Damascus over the weekend, now faces the colossal task of rebuilding a shattered nation. Over 300,000 Syrians are dead, and Impunity Watch estimates more than 100,000 are missing. Half of Syria’s pre-war population is displaced. Five of the six million displaced live in Turkey and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, Syrian refugees may constitute one-sixth of the population.

Syria remains fragmented, controlled by various factions. Celebratory scenes of the post-dictatorship tradition of toppling statues mask a grim reality. U.S., Israeli, and Turkish forces continue operations across Syria, targeting groups hostile to their interests. The U.S. targets Daesh (ISIS), Israel strikes sites linked to chemical and offensive weapons and has advanced into the Buffer Zone separating the occupied Golan Heights and Syria, and Turkey focuses on weakening Kurdish forces it perceives as a threat to its own stability.

Meanwhile, Assad’s allies, Russia and Iran, appear uncharacteristically disoriented by the rapid change. HTS leadership has reassured Russia that its bases in Syria will be protected and signaled intentions to maintain close ties with Iran.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a former Al-Nusra Front founder and one-time Al-Qaeda affiliate, now seeks to distance himself from his Islamist extremist past. Since forming Tahrir al-Sham in 2017, Jolani has tried to pivot toward governance, establishing systems for taxation, public services, and even issuing identity cards in the Idlib Goveronate. However, authoritarian methods and suppression of dissent persist, raising concerns among Syria’s Christian and minority communities.

HTS faces numerous adversaries, including the U.S.-backed Kurdish coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast, Turkey-supported rebels in the north, and other anti-Assad factions in the south. Jolani’s ability to navigate these rivalries and maintain control remains uncertain.

For now, Syria’s future hangs in the balance. Security and stability remain elusive, and chaos may define the post-Assad era for years to come. The millions of Syrians displaced abroad are best to wait to see how things pan out before returning home. Many of their children have never known a peaceful Syria and would also need help adjusting to a vastly different reality upon return.

*Costa Constanti is the Director of CONSTANTi as well as a Political and Social Analist. He is also a Political Council Candidate for the Volt party.