By Giorgos Skafidas
It was the early hours of Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, when thousands of armed Hamas fighters crossed from the Gaza Strip in a coordinated assault on southern Israel, killing civilians and taking hostages. The toll: more than 1,300 dead, most of them civilians, thousands injured, 254 hostages and an unprecedented wound at the heart of the Middle East powder keg. Israel had just suffered the deadliest terrorist attack in its history.
Afterward, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that “the Middle East will change.” And so it did. Three years later, much of what we once took for granted in the region has indeed changed.
From the very beginning, however, one question dominated: Could Israel, a fortress state with extremely strict controls, highly experienced security agencies and powerful intelligence services, a country that controlled who entered and left the officially blockaded Gaza Strip, really have been unaware that such a large attack was coming?
That question has now returned to the forefront, three years later, as Israel prepares for parliamentary elections on Oct. 27, the first to be held in the country since the events of Oct. 7, 2023.
Netanyahu against Golan
Sara Netanyahu, the current prime minister’s wife, recently claimed during an interview with the pro-government Israeli broadcaster Channel 14 that Yair Golan, a former deputy chief of staff of the Israeli military, knew about the Hamas attack in advance.
“He was already dressed and ready,” she said of Golan, who also happens to be one of her husband’s political opponents.
“Spreading conspiracy theories against Yair Golan crosses a red line and borders on insanity. [...] We unequivocally condemn Sara Netanyahu’s defamatory and false statements,” said the opposition Democrats party, led by Golan. The centre-left party is running against Netanyahu’s Likud in October’s election.
Golan, who had already retired from the military by 2023, was indeed among the first volunteers to rush toward the Gaza border on the morning of Oct. 7 after realising what was happening. He fought Hamas gunmen at close range.
Does that mean he knew something beforehand? Benjamin Netanyahu’s wife appears to have tried to weaponise such a scenario with an eye on October’s election and the various conspiracy theories that increasingly find a receptive audience within Israel.
Theories of betrayal from within
A poll conducted for Israel’s Channel 13 in August found that 40% of Israelis and 63% of voters supporting the governing right-wing coalition believe that an internal betrayal paved the way for the Oct. 7 attacks, according to Agence France-Presse.
Against this increasingly heated electoral backdrop, the question returns with force: Could a fortress state like Israel really have been unaware that such a large attack was coming?
What Haaretz reports
According to a lengthy report by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Netanyahu himself knew.
The newspaper claims he had received information that Hamas was preparing a major attack but chose to play it down or ignore it. It says he did not inform any of the heads of Israel’s security or intelligence services.
Writing in Haaretz, Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval say that roughly 10 days before the Oct. 7 attack, in late September 2023, Netanyahu received a telephone call lasting approximately 45 minutes from United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed.
It is worth recalling that the Emirates joined the Abraham Accords in September 2020, normalising relations with Israel.
“Bin Zayed spoke directly with Netanyahu. These conversations followed a standard procedure: An employee from the Emirati Embassy would come to the Israeli prime minister’s office carrying a special telephone device that ensured the confidentiality of the call,” Eldar and Yuval write in Haaretz, a newspaper opposed to and highly critical of Netanyahu’s government.
This call, however, was reportedly different.
According to the allegations, the Emirati leader called Netanyahu from the presidential palace in Abu Dhabi, and the two spoke for about 45 minutes. During that conversation, Mohamed bin Zayed is said to have warned Netanyahu that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was planning a major operation against Israel.
Haaretz reports that bin Zayed warned the planned Hamas operation could destabilise the entire Middle East and undermine the Abraham Accords.
The Palestinian adviser
An unnamed Palestinian adviser close to bin Zayed was reportedly present during the call. According to the account, he had moved from Gaza to Abu Dhabi years earlier but remained in contact with people living in the coastal Palestinian enclave in the Eastern Mediterranean.
A Palestinian living in Abu Dhabi who has previously acted as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas is Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah official.
According to the unnamed adviser, the Emirati leader “explained” to Netanyahu that Sinwar was “preparing something big.”
“He told Netanyahu that Israel needed to be ready” and urged him to take the warnings seriously.
Haaretz reports, however, that “to the Emirati leader’s surprise, the Israeli prime minister reacted with relative calm.”
“Netanyahu said that, in his assessment, Hamas intended to operate in the West Bank and assured bin Zayed that Israel was prepared for every scenario,” Eldar and Yuval write.
Their report reveals part of the research conducted for a forthcoming book titled Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment.
Eldar and Yuval also report that bin Zayed informed then-CIA Director William Burns about his conversation with Netanyahu in September 2023.
Bin Zayed reportedly told Burns that he had tried to convey to Netanyahu the sense that “something there was about to explode.” He also told Burns that the Israeli prime minister believed the unstable area was, in fact, the West Bank.
According to Haaretz, Netanyahu not only failed to act on the warning from the Emirati leadership but also failed to inform the heads of Israel’s armed forces and intelligence agencies.
The 2023 negotiations
Haaretz also presents an intriguing account of what it says had been happening behind the scenes between Israel and Hamas from early 2023 until September of that year.
According to the report, Israel’s domestic security and counterintelligence agency, Shin Bet, had been holding talks with Hamas and Fatah without Egypt’s knowledge.
Hamas was represented by Hebrew-speaking official Ghazi Hamad, who had participated in the secret contacts that led to the 2011 release of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. As part of that exchange, Israel released Yahya Sinwar, who later became Hamas’ leader in Gaza.
The 2023 talks had reportedly made significant progress on issues including future arrangements for Gaza, a partial easing of the blockade, facilitating trade with the outside world and the release of prisoners.
Along the way, however, Netanyahu’s side allegedly began delaying decisions the Palestinians had been awaiting, including those involving prisoner releases. Sinwar’s side became frustrated, “lost patience” and withdrew from the talks, reportedly in early September 2023.
“Tell the Israelis that if they do not make progress,” Sinwar is said to have told the unnamed Fatah representative, referring to the release of Palestinian prisoners, “I am preparing a huge surprise for them. Tell them to expect an earthquake. [...] Did you deliver my message to the Israelis? Tell them I am preparing the mother of all surprises. A terrifying operation. Something extraordinary.”
Sinwar reportedly made those statements on two separate occasions, in early and mid-September 2023.
The Fatah representative did not contact Shin Bet directly because he was “afraid” of the agency. Instead, he informed the Palestinian adviser to Emirati leader Mohamed bin Zayed.
The adviser then informed the Emirati leadership, which asked for the warning to be passed to Shin Bet. According to the report, this was done on Sept. 15, 2023.
Still according to Haaretz, Israeli officials were therefore informed of Sinwar’s threats. They reportedly discussed them during meetings attended by then-Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Sept. 17 but took no preventive action.
While trying to understand what Sinwar meant by a “surprise attack,” some Shin Bet officials reportedly suggested that Hamas fighters might attempt to seize Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been kidnapped and was being held in Iraq. They believed Hamas might then demand the release of more Palestinian prisoners in exchange for her freedom.
When bin Zayed learned that the Israelis were not planning to act immediately, he reportedly decided to contact Netanyahu personally. By then, it was late September 2023.
A call from Egypt as well
Around the same time, Netanyahu is also said to have received another call, this one from then-Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel.
Kamel reportedly warned him that “something unusual, a terrifying operation” was about to be launched by Hamas.
According to journalist Smadar Perry, who published details of the alleged conversation in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Netanyahu replied: “We have Gaza under control. Our problem is the West Bank. That is where we are diverting our forces.”
Haaretz reports that another meeting between Shin Bet officials and Netanyahu took place on Oct. 1, 2023. The meeting reportedly included discussions about possible plans to eliminate the “arrogant” Yahya Sinwar.
“Prepare plans for me, and I will examine them,” Netanyahu is said to have told the leadership of Israel’s domestic security agency.
He did not, however, tell them about the call he had allegedly received earlier from Emirati leader Mohamed bin Zayed.
Denials and accusations
Exactly three years later, all of this has returned to the forefront ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, raising political tensions inside the country.
Netanyahu categorically denies the allegations against him.
“I did not speak with the UAE president during the period in question, and I received no warning from him,” he says. He is also threatening legal action.
The Israeli opposition, however, does not believe him.
“Netanyahu received dozens of warnings before Oct. 7 and ignored them all,” alleges former Israeli military chief and current Yashar opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who is also in opposition, accuses the current prime minister and Likud leader of bearing “direct, personal responsibility.”
As for Yahya Sinwar, he can neither confirm nor deny the claims. He was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October 2024.
