Pavlos Xanthoulis
Ankara put the EU through the wringer by attempting to exclude the Republic of Cyprus from the United Nations climate change conference, COP31, taking place in Antalya from Nov. 9 to 20, according to information obtained by Kathimerini.
Sources told Kathimerini that Recep Tayyip Erdogan used the “opportunities” available to Turkey as the host and organizer to send personal letters inviting the leaders of just 26 EU member states to the conference’s leaders’ meeting on Nov. 11 and 12. The Republic of Cyprus and its president were left out.
A Brussels source described Turkey’s move as “a tactical maneuver and a partial retreat,” as Ankara was forced to invite the Cypriot president despite its initial, persistent efforts to exclude him.
According to the same sources, Nicosia acted immediately, while Brussels also intervened through European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who spoke with Ankara at least three times.
Kathimerini understands that Turkey persisted undeterred for many weeks, testing Brussels’ response. The EU warned Ankara that it would be forced to address the matter publicly—a step that would inevitably have unpredictable political repercussions and could potentially put the entire EU’s participation in the UN climate conference in question.
The dispute reached a critical point in recent days. Multiple sources told Kathimerini that, on the instructions of Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos, Nicosia informed EU institutions and fellow member states that, if Turkey continued on the same course, the Cypriot president would raise the issue at the European Council meeting on Oct. 15 and 16.
Cyprus would also request “the inclusion of wording in the conclusions” of the summit: a paragraph criticizing or condemning Turkey’s attempt to exclude an EU member state from the UN climate conference.
Kathimerini also understands that Cyprus’ permanent representative to the EU, Giorgos Ioannides, told the Committee of Permanent Representatives, known as Coreper, that despite the efforts made by Costa, von der Leyen and Kallas up to early October, Cyprus “has still not received an official invitation from the country hosting the conference"—Turkey.
The same well-informed sources said Costa’s head of cabinet replied during the Coreper meeting that the aim was for all EU member states to participate in COP31. He added that interventions had also taken place on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. A source in Brussels told Kathimerini that diplomatic representations to Ankara were continuing.
On Friday, Oct. 9, following intense behind-the-scenes diplomacy and a marathon of phone calls, Turkey made a move that formally, if only partially, put matters right.
According to three separate sources who spoke to Kathimerini, Turkey’s COP31 organizing authority sent 29 invitation letters: one for each of the 27 EU leaders, including President Nikos Christodoulides, and two for the heads of the European Commission and European Council.
The letters were sent to Brussels by Turkey’s conference organizers. They did not bear Erdogan’s signature, unlike the original invitations he had sent to the 26 leaders while excluding the Cypriot president.
In other words, Ankara—in consultation with Brussels, according to our information, and seeking to avert a crisis—arranged for new letters to be sent through the organizers to all 27 EU leaders. This allowed Turkey to keep up appearances and avoid facing political accusations over the exclusion of an EU member state.
A Brussels source described the move as “a tactical maneuver and a partial retreat.” Ankara had been forced to invite the Cypriot president despite its initial, persistent efforts to exclude him. Erdogan, however, avoided personally signing the invitation to the Republic of Cyprus, with the organizing authority instead sending a simple email to each of the 27 member states.
In light of these developments, Brussels expects all 27 member states to attend the COP31 leaders’ meeting in Antalya on Nov. 11 and 12.
That includes Christodoulides, who, should he choose to attend—now the most likely prospect—will clearly need to prepare for possible unwelcome surprises. Kathimerini understands that the Cypriot Foreign Ministry is already making preparations for that possibility.
The first moves came in May
Ankara had signaled its intentions as early as late May, when it excluded Cyprus from a COP31 briefing held at the United Nations in New York.
The move prompted a response from Nicosia through Cyprus’ permanent mission to the UN. According to our information, even the Republic of Cyprus’ nameplate was missing from the preparatory meeting, making clear that an organized Turkish effort was underway to exclude the country from the UN climate conference.
The issue caused a stir even then, despite the meeting’s preparatory nature. The European Commission called Cyprus’ exclusion “unacceptable” and said Turkey had pledged that it would not happen again.
On May 28, Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said, "We have made clear that excluding a United Nations member state from the preparations for the COP31 climate conference is not acceptable.”
She added: “Turkey has assured us that Cyprus will not be excluded from future preparatory meetings for COP31.”
Despite those assurances, Ankara subsequently tried again to exclude the Republic of Cyprus. The issue now appears headed for a resolution, with the organizing authority sending invitations to the leaders of all 27 member states as these lines were being written on Friday.
Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra also spoke out in May about Cyprus’ exclusion from the preparatory discussions.
“This is unacceptable, and we are not going to accept it either. Either you have all 27, or none of the 27,” he told Politico, addressing Turkey.
“If you seek to host an international event, that takes precedence over any national sensitivities you may have,” he added.
Von der Leyen, Costa and Kallas have little sway over Turkey
Turkey’s efforts to exclude the Republic of Cyprus from COP31—and, above all, Ankara’s handling of EU interventions and diplomatic representations over many weeks—demonstrate just how limited Brussels’ influence is. Yet Nicosia continues to place its hopes in that influence to help break the deadlock over the Cyprus problem.
Discussions within Coreper, revealed today by Kathimerini, show that Brussels was “hitting a wall” in Ankara for weeks, possibly months, despite the efforts of Costa, von der Leyen and Kallas.
As noted above, the letter sent by Turkey’s COP31 organizing authority to all 27 member states on Friday appears to be bringing the dispute to a resolution, formally covering the Republic of Cyprus’ participation in the UN climate conference.
Nevertheless, it is clear that Turkey does not give the EU leadership sufficient weight—to put it politely. Friday’s positive development does not erase the difficulty Brussels faced persuading Ankara over a matter of far less political significance than resolving the Cyprus problem.
The notion of EU influence over Turkey therefore looks more like a figure of speech of questionable substance. Consider that, when Turkey barred Cyprus from the preparatory discussions in May, the Commission claimed to have secured assurances from Ankara that its exclusion “would not happen again.”
Unfortunately, it did happen again, just weeks later—and on a much more serious scale.
It is reasonable, then, to ask what can realistically be expected of the EU’s ability to influence Ankara toward a Cyprus settlement when it struggles to persuade Erdogan’s government even to send the Cypriot president an invitation to a UN climate conference taking place on Turkish soil.
The answer is probably self-evident when one also considers how Turkey and the so-called “TRNC” responded to the Commission’s appointment of Executive Vice President Raffaele Fitto as its envoy on the Cyprus problem.
In essence, they told him that the Commission’s only meaningful contribution to a settlement would be to end the Turkish Cypriots’ so-called “isolation” and establish “direct trade and direct flights” with the international community.
This would create a framework of “direct relations” bypassing the Republic of Cyprus—with all that this would entail for efforts to elevate the status of the unrecognized entity in the occupied north.
