Pavlos Xanthoulis
The European Union has responded weakly to plans for an undersea natural gas pipeline linking Turkey to occupied northern Cyprus. Brussels has limited itself to verbal appeals that have done little to deter Ankara. Construction is already underway, for now within Turkish maritime zones. Nicosia sounded the alarm in Brussels, but its warning did little to stir the EU into action or change its approach. For the time being, the bloc sees Turkey as a “strategic partner” on migration and, above all, as important to Europe’s emerging defense and security arrangements and to NATO cohesion.
It is hardly surprising, then, that the carefully worded letter from Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos, disclosed by Kathimerini, failed to spur Brussels to use whatever political leverage it may still have to press Ankara to reverse course on the pipeline. Kathimerini understands that the EU’s exchanges with Ankara were largely an attempt to sound out Turkey’s intentions in occupied northern Cyprus. Nicosia sought to present them as formal diplomatic representations.
Nicosia is counting on EU pressure to sway Ankara, but so far Brussels has done little beyond raising its concerns.
President Nikos Christodoulides said the EU “has stated its position and has also made representations to the Turkish side.” Nicosia is clearly counting on those efforts, though they have yet to produce results. Turkey is pressing ahead with construction, and Ünal Üstel, the “prime minister” of the breakaway entity in occupied northern Cyprus, responded to Kombos’ letter by saying Nicosia had no right to interfere in the decisions or projects of the self-declared “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” (“TRNC”).
In a written statement, Üstel said work on the pipeline would proceed at full speed and that the project would be completed for the benefit of Turkish Cypriots. He likened it to the pipeline that carries water from Turkey to the occupied north, calling it the “project of the century.” Asked about the Turkish side’s objection to the letter, Christodoulides said he saw no reason for it. “This is clearly an illegal action,” he said, repeating that the EU had taken “specific steps” with Turkey.
The “geopolitical context”
As Kathimerini reported last Sunday, Nicosia raised the pipeline at the EU Foreign Affairs Council on Oct. 13. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos reaffirmed that all candidate countries must honor their obligations to all 27 EU member states. She also stressed that “the current geopolitical context cannot be ignored.” The remark appeared to point to Ankara’s importance as a “strategic partner” on migration, defense and security, especially given the efforts by Brussels and influential member states, including Germany and Italy, to reach out to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government.
In his letter, Kombos expressed deep concern about “irreversible developments,” the prospect of Ankara absorbing occupied northern Cyprus and the risk of undermining UN efforts on the Cyprus issue. He also indirectly raised the prospect of sanctions, arguing that the pipeline should be considered in the context of unlawful Turkish actions that “led the European Union to establish a framework for restrictive measures in 2019.”
The letter was addressed to EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas and Kos, who urged the 27 to take the geopolitical context into account. Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Šuica and Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen were copied.
Gas could flow the other way
Beyond the political implications of the memorandum of understanding between Ankara and the self-declared “TRNC,” Turkey also has an economic motive. The pipeline is designed to carry gas in both directions. The plans appear to extend beyond supplying occupied northern Cyprus with gas from Turkey. They could also allow gas from maritime areas where the Republic of Cyprus exercises sovereign rights to be sent to Turkey.
Kombos raised that concern in his letter to the four EU officials. Well-informed EU sources told Kathimerini, however, that highlighting the pipeline’s ability to carry gas both ways “did not have the hoped-for effect,” drawing less attention in Brussels than Nicosia had apparently expected.
Taken together, the plans set out in the memorandum point to developments that could be difficult to reverse, as Nicosia itself acknowledges in its letter to the EU.
EU report on Turkey due today
The European Commission is expected to publish its annual reports on EU candidate countries today, including Turkey. Nicosia has pushed for the Commission to criticize the pipeline in its progress report on Turkey. Such criticism could open a discussion about sanctions, which would require a decision by EU member states. In the Council, where those decisions are made, “there appears to be no consideration at all of measures against Turkey,” a source familiar with the positions of the 27 and the balance of power among them told Kathimerini.
The Commission is expected to document Turkey’s continued backsliding on the rule of law and human rights and reiterate that accession talks remain frozen. At the same time, it is expected to signal room for a distinct EU-Turkey partnership in areas where both sides stand to benefit.
Drafts circulating in recent weeks also listed Turkey’s outstanding obligations relating to Cyprus and reiterated its duty, as a candidate country, to help resolve the Cyprus issue. As in previous reports, Turkey’s contribution was described as “crucial.”
