Who will succeed Guterres at the U.N.?

The race to succeed U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres remains wide open. Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan held on to her lead in the eighth informal ballot, known as a straw poll, held a few days ago. She received 12 votes of encouragement and three of discouragement. Yet she appears to have drawn Donald Trump’s opposition, with the United States reportedly vetoing her candidacy.

Argentina’s Rafael Mariano Grossi came second, with nine votes of encouragement, four of discouragement and two members expressing no opinion. He faces opposition of his own. As head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Grossi has been involved in issues concerning both Iran and Ukraine, leaving him exposed to objections from rival geopolitical camps.

Turkey’s candidate, Feridun Sinirlioğlu, finished sixth out of eight in his first straw poll. He drew just three votes of encouragement, against eight of discouragement and four members expressing no opinion. EU sources following the race told Kathimerini that Ankara has stepped up its lobbying in recent days, focusing mainly on the Security Council’s permanent members. According to the same sources, the Erdoğan government could try to insert itself into the race by pitching Sinirlioğlu as a compromise candidate to break the deadlock. If his candidacy remains stalled, Ankara may try to extract a concession in return.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates’ Lana Nusseibeh, whom Cyprus backs, remained stuck in fourth place with seven votes of encouragement, six of discouragement and two members expressing no opinion. Nicosia’s choice raises a fair question. By backing Nusseibeh, the Christodoulides government has broken with the informal convention of regional rotation, under which the next secretary-general would come from Latin America or the Caribbean. The 33 countries in that regional group, known as GRULAC, have reminded governments of the convention, taking issue with countries such as Cyprus that chose to forget it. Nusseibeh’s candidacy also faces scrutiny over allegations that the UAE has backed the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, in Sudan. Curiously, that controversy did little to deter Nicosia.

A candidate needs at least nine votes in the Security Council and must avoid a veto from any of its five permanent members before going to the General Assembly. Both Grynspan and Grossi face at least one potential veto despite clearing the nine-vote threshold in the eighth straw poll. In the sixth poll, the only one to use color-coded ballots to identify votes cast by permanent members, each received two negative votes from those members. In Grynspan’s case, reports point to both the United States and Russia.

Moscow said a few days ago that it was prepared to consider candidates from outside GRULAC if none of the Latin American and Caribbean contenders could win enough support in the Security Council. Kirill Logvinov, director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department of International Organizations, set out that position. The Christodoulides government has already looked beyond the region. It did so without exhausting the chances of rallying support for a GRULAC candidate or even observing the niceties of the U.N.’s informal rules.

Deadlock and dark horses

The New York Times has described the race to succeed Guterres as “chaotic.” It reported that Trump has yet to settle on a candidate amid disagreements among advisers whose attention is focused on the war with Iran. Washington is said to favor an independent outsider who would sharply cut the U.N.’s budget and bureaucracy. That would put insiders such as Grynspan, who leads the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, at a disadvantage.

The deadlock has drawn new candidates into the race, including Sinirlioğlu. Turkey’s apparent hope is that he can emerge as a compromise candidate or that Ankara can secure something in return for its backing.

The Stimson Center, a think tank, has suggested that GRULAC’s failure to rally behind a single candidate such as Grynspan or Grossi could open the door to a last-minute contender. One possibility is former Bulgarian Foreign Minister Nikolay Mladenov, with the deputy secretary-general’s post going to someone from Latin America or the Caribbean. A dark horse could come from well outside the front of the pack and win precisely because rival camps can agree on the name.

Of the three scenarios the Stimson Center outlines, it puts first the possibility that the 33 GRULAC countries coalesce around one candidate and keep the longstanding principle of regional rotation alive. Its second scenario is the emergence of a late entrant as a compromise choice. The third is that support shifts to one of the eight candidates already in the race whose prospects currently look slim. They include Ecuador’s María Fernanda Espinosa, with three votes of encouragement, 10 of discouragement and two members expressing no opinion, and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, with four votes of encouragement, nine of discouragement and two members expressing no opinion. Turkey’s Sinirlioğlu falls into the same category.

Where Nicosia went wrong twice

The first question about Nicosia’s backing for Nusseibeh is why it set aside a longstanding convention intended to ensure geographic balance in the U.N.’s leadership. Under that convention, it is Latin America and the Caribbean’s turn. Four of the eight candidates have the regional group’s official backing, which makes Nicosia’s readiness to disregard a practice observed by the overwhelming majority of U.N. members all the harder to explain.

The Christodoulides government has every reason to respect the formal and informal rules that govern business at the U.N., given what it hopes to achieve on the Cyprus issue and more broadly. Yet it chose to back Nusseibeh. The four candidates backed by the region are Grynspan of Costa Rica, Grossi of Argentina, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana and Espinosa of Ecuador, whose candidacy was put forward by Antigua and Barbuda.

The 33 countries in GRULAC also issued a statement through CELAC, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, reminding governments of the principle of fair geographic balance. They said they were convinced of the need for a more inclusive and representative international system and reiterated that the time had come for someone from Latin America or the Caribbean to serve as U.N. secretary-general, in keeping with that principle and the need for greater diversity in the organization’s leadership.

Nicosia’s second misstep was to overlook the public debate over the UAE’s involvement in Sudan’s war, particularly the allegations that it supported the RSF. The New York Times reported that the U.N. found evidence that the UAE had become involved in the conflict by hiring Colombian mercenaries to support the paramilitary force. The newspaper also reported that Nusseibeh was leading efforts to rebut reports of her country’s involvement in Sudan. Human Rights Watch has criticized her candidacy, accusing her of whitewashing human rights abuses in Sudan and Yemen.

One other detail stands out. Former Deputy Minister for European Affairs Marilena Raouna announced her support for Nusseibeh in a post on X several hours before the Cypriot government made its position public through Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos. The timing has its own implications.