Apostolos Tomaras
Two years and two months after the temporary suspension, as the halt in seabed surveys east of Kasos was described, the Cyprus-Europe electricity interconnection via Crete is entering a new phase of activity. The next two months are considered crucial for the development of the ambitious energy project in the Eastern Mediterranean, which aims to end the energy isolation of the Republic of Cyprus while strengthening the energy security of countries in the region. All available information indicates that the parties directly involved in the energy project are determined to overcome the obstacles posed by Turkey, which previously led to the suspension of the work. The strengthening of the shareholding structure of the entity that will implement the project, the Great Sea Interconnector, with French group Meridiam acquiring a 66% majority stake, has created a new set of circumstances that will become clear on the ground once the Navtex is issued, giving the green light for the resumption of seabed surveys in sections of the continental shelves of Cyprus and Greece, as well as in international waters between Kasos and Cyprus.
The expected developments in the survey area are being closely monitored not only by the parties involved, Greece, Cyprus and France, but also by the international community, with the aim of preventing a new source of tension stemming from Turkey’s provocative statements and efforts to establish a de facto situation through its claims regarding Turkish sovereign rights in the area. Information obtained by “K” from the Greek capital places the resumption of the surveys between October and November, with the Navtex expected to be issued next month. In fact, as “K” in Athens reported, Athens and Paris have agreed on the steps that will be taken so that the vessel chartered by French company Meridiam can complete its work.
Permits and notification
Turkish reports attempting to lower the level of rhetoric are also indicative of the situation taking shape. They refer to a “French formula” for resuming the work and, instead of the previous demands for a permit from Ankara, now refer to notification from the vessel that will conduct the surveys. The Turkish reports are consistent with information from Greece and Cyprus about the procedural framework for resuming the work, which appears to have been finalized following contacts between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and French President Emmanuel Macron. According to information from “K,” the French side agreed to issue a “communique” on the cable, with wording that fully takes into account the Greek red lines concerning sovereign rights. According to our information, the announcement will address two categories. One will concern the states whose continental shelf the electricity cable will cross, while the other will concern coastal states in the region, including Turkey. In the first case, “K” reports that France will ask Athens and Nicosia to issue permits for the surveys. In the case of Turkey and Egypt, however, a simple notification will be issued. This will not constitute a request for a permit, but rather notification of the start and duration of the work.
France the key
Until recently, it remained unclear which side would issue notifications concerning the resumption of work in the region’s coastal states and at what level. In recent days, however, reports have increasingly indicated that the notification will come from the French government rather than the vessel conducting the surveys. This could help block Turkish diplomatic efforts to obstruct the work. The vessel conducting the seabed surveys will be chartered by Meridiam and will fly the French flag. The possibility that the Turkish side could repeat its 2024 provocations, including the presence of naval units in the area, is not considered remote. Despite Athens and Paris avoiding any steps that could further escalate tensions, the resumption of the work is expected to be closely and discreetly monitored by naval forces from both countries. France’s position is not attributed solely to any geopolitical ambitions it may have in the Eastern Mediterranean. It also appears connected to its support for another French company, Nexans, the contractor responsible for constructing the high-voltage submarine cable for the electricity interconnection, and to avoiding unwanted financial consequences if the project were to collapse.
Ankara
Despite Turkish reports in recent days maintaining a low profile, Turkey remains the unpredictable factor. Whether Ankara will consider the process for resuming the surveys, which appears to have been agreed upon by Athens and Paris, sufficient, or whether it will continue insisting on its demands for coordination and consultation, will become clear once the work begins. In this regard, the “K” report from Athens says that Athens and Paris have mapped out the “range of possible Turkish reactions.” According to “K,” the mildest scenario would see Turkey accept the announcement and limit its response to issuing its own illegal NAVTEX for the surveys. Other scenarios have also been considered, including the possibility that the Turkish side could request further clarification and consultations before the surveys begin. Another possibility is that Turkey could create tension at the survey site by sending a warship, either harassing the research vessel or attempting to prevent the work from proceeding, as it did in July 2024.
Athens
Despite comments occasionally made behind the scenes in the Cypriot capital about the Greek side’s true intentions regarding the electricity interconnection project, the initiative in recent months has rested with the Greek prime minister and the French president. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis offered a glimpse into the procedural framework for resuming the work while speaking on state television. “A vessel with a specific name, flying the French flag, will conduct surveys for the laying of the cable in areas that have not been delimited. These areas will be precisely described, as will the duration of the work, which will begin shortly.” Last week, the disclosure that 100,000 call-up papers had been sent to reservists in the Greek Armed Forces caused a stir in Greece. The Ministry of National Defence in Athens quickly clarified that this was a routine procedure. ADMIE is also taking a wait-and-see approach as it retains the technical leadership of the project and the operation of the electricity cable.
Nicosia follows from a distance
In Nicosia, the presidential response to two weeks of “K” reports about the Cypriot side’s position on the electricity interconnection project helped contain reactions from political parties. However, developments indicate that Nicosia’s main concern is not what is being planned between Kasos and Cyprus, where the Cypriot involvement is limited, but the potential political repercussions at home if the work begins. While the other two parties involved in the project are determining the steps needed to complete the surveys and clear the way for the cable to be laid, concerns about the electricity cable remain in Cyprus. Despite President Nicos Christodoulides’ assurance that the Republic of Cyprus will fulfill its obligations under the 2024 Framework Agreement, including payment of the annual €25 million installment to ADMIE, it remains unclear what Finance Minister Makis Keravnos will do. He continues to maintain that no funds will be released for the cable unless the GSI’s financial data are first updated to determine whether the project is financially viable. It should be recalled that the President of the Republic announced that Cyprus will pay the first €25 million once the Navtex is issued by the Greek side. This raises two questions. First, what will Nicos Christodoulides do if the finance minister remains firm in the position he has publicly expressed, a scenario that cannot be ruled out. Second, will Makis Keravnos resign and make it easier for the President of the Republic to proceed by leaving the government? He had indicated that possibility after his disagreements with former Energy Minister George Papanastasiou became public.
