Opinion
By Notis Papadopoulos
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s recent statement suggesting that we’re facing a “historic opportunity for the permanent solution to the Aegean problem” raised eyebrows in Athens. This is mainly because Fidan’s claim came ahead of a planned meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in February and as US President Donald Trump continues to rock the global boat and shock the world with statements and positions that are unprecedented in their bluntness.
What is also clear is that Athens must avoid a crisis with Turkey for the next three years that Trump is in power,
Indeed, some see American intervention at work behind Fidan’s statement – meaning Trump’s intention to take an active personal interest in Greek-Turkish affairs because the Aegean, the Eastern Mediterranean and drilling in the region lie at the core of his energy interests. The presence in the American embassies of Athens and Ankara of White House picks and trusted Trump associates, Kimberly Guilfoyle and Tom Barrack, are a strong indication of Washington’s plans for some important initiatives in the area.
Trump’s true intentions aside, it is clear that a potential push by the American side to fast-track a resolution of Greek-Turkish differences in the Aegean could have dire consequences for Greek interests, given the American president’s disregard for the principles of international law. What interests him in all the approaches he has made during his second term at the White House is to find quick solutions that will secure American interests even when these are completely at odds with the wants of the countries involved.
Bearing this in mind, Athens’ strong arguments – which are grounded in international law and multilateral agreements and conventions, under which, for example, Greek islands possess their own continental shelf, Turkey’s claims of “gray zones” lack legal basis, and disputes between two countries should be resolved by recourse to international arbitration – seem to matter little to President Trump. He did, after all, openly admit his disregard for international law recently, in comments following the arrest of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, while saying that his power is restrained only by his own morality.
Given that no one can know what exactly is on President Trump’s mind these days, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis decided to cancel his trip to Davos (where he ran the “risk” of meeting Trump), invoking the storms in Greece to explain his absence from the World Economic Forum.
What is also clear is that Athens must avoid a crisis with Turkey for the next three years that Trump is in power, while accelerating drilling for hydrocarbons by Exxon Mobil and Chevron in the Ionian and south of Crete – this is a Greek priority in any case and key to the country’s energy interests.
At the same time, though, the Greek side must do everything it can to strengthen its close cooperation with the European Union, which constitutes its main safety net at a time when the rules governing the world order are collapsing. As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney so aptly put it at Davos: “Middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.” This is even truer for small countries like Greece.
And truth be told, the past 12 months of the American presidency have shown that Trump appears to back down only when faced with a concerted reaction against him, especially when it has negative consequences for the United States in international markets. This was seen for the first time during the period when Trump doubled US tariffs on China, prompting retaliatory stock-market measures by Beijing and ultimately leading Washington to retreat by imposing lower tariffs.
In a similar vein, the solidarity shown by European partners toward Denmark over the past few days, coupled with the EU’s warning that it is considering tough measures against the United States should Trump persist in his irrational claims to seize Greenland, produced impressive results. They led to a drop in the US stock market and in the value of the dollar, developments that forced the American president into a complete U-turn. He abandoned his threats against Greenland and agreed to work with Europe on the creation of an anti-ballistic shield over the country, one that would protect the US and Canada.
