Opinion
By Antonis Kamaras
Given Turkey's status as a major national security threat to our country, assessing the combat readiness of the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) is crucial.
International research offers sophisticated analytical tools to address this issue. There is a broad consensus that political regimes like President Erdogan's, which have recently experienced military coups, tend to systematically reduce the combat capability of their armed forces to prevent future coups—a phenomenon known as "coup-proofing." A relevant quantitative study has shown that, in the post-war period, countries that had recently undergone military coups, and subsequently purged and restructured their military hierarchies undemocratically, saw their chances of winning wars decrease by 28%.
Erdogan's Turkey exemplifies these factors. The 2016 coup attempt led to widespread purges of military officers and the appointment of military leaders based on loyalty to Erdogan. Although the negative impact on TAF's effectiveness might have partially diminished over the past eight years, international analysts project that within two years, the Turkish Air Force will still be recovering from the dismissal of many experienced personnel. However, the political patronage system that consolidates Erdogan's power has eroded the value of the TAF, particularly in key political centers.
It is important to note that while units operating far from political centers may maintain operational effectiveness, those based in politically sensitive areas, such as Istanbul, are likely to be populated with regime loyalists. Military units in such locations may be less capable due to the prioritization of loyalty over competence, which can undermine their operational performance.
The Erdogan administration, while engaging in extensive military operations in Syria and other regions, has focused on achieving the president's provocative objectives. Operations in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, conducted through proxies, have not diminished the TAF's combat capability. Moreover, these actions, combined with the promotion of the "Blue Homeland" doctrine, have solidified the loyalty of many Turkish officers by offering growth opportunities and increased resources.
However, these operations have occurred in secondary theaters against opponents with limited operational and technological capabilities. Erdogan's "coup-proofing" has further distanced the TAF from Western military standards, especially given the purges targeted NATO-aligned officers and deepened suspicion towards NATO. As NATO members, including Greece, adapt their military strategies based on lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the TAF's internal purges and regime-based appointments have hindered its ability to evolve and learn from these developments.
Mr. Antonis Kamaras is a research associate at Eliamep. His article, "Erdogan's Coup-Proofing: Why Greece Should Care," is published by Eliamep's Policy Center.
[This article was translated from its Greek original]
