Yiannis Ioannou
When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the so-called “Mecca pact” on August 7 at Al-Safa Palace in the holy city of Mecca, international media focused heavily on headlines about an “Islamic NATO” and a military axis in the Middle East. Yet the agreement is more than an alliance modeled on security organizations built around mutual military assistance between Ankara, Islamabad and Riyadh. It is also the cumulative result of developments across the region. The ongoing Iran-Israel-Trump conflict is accelerating those developments and, more importantly, bringing back long-standing security perceptions that begin with Erdogan’s model of governance, continue through the traditionally authoritarian monarchies of the Gulf and reach the Asian underbelly of the MENA system, extending all the way to the Indian Ocean. The Mecca agreement brings back the three-way nature of cooperation among countries in the region, with its effects reaching as far as the Eastern Mediterranean. But what does it really signal? And how can Nicosia view it?
The big picture
It should come as no surprise that Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are moving toward a more structured defense partnership, including a mutual assistance clause in the event of an external attack. For decades, Turkey-Saudi Arabia, Pakistan-Turkey and Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relations have maintained an exceptionally high level of cooperation in defense and security. In particular, the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia relationship, under which Pakistani military forces and the Pakistani air force frequently deploy to the Gulf kingdom, was reinforced last December, in 2025, through another extension of a bilateral defense cooperation agreement. In effect, that agreement paved the way for Turkey to join the Mecca pact. What accelerated the creation of the trilateral defense agreement, however, was clearly Iran. Iran not only directly attacked Saudi Arabia during the latest round of hostilities, causing deaths and injuries and targeting critical energy infrastructure such as Aramco facilities, but has also been engaged in a decade-long proxy conflict with Riyadh against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has backed Sunni tribes that have fought the Houthis for decades, dating back to the period when Yemen was divided into northern and southern Yemen. Geopolitically, the Mecca agreement appears to be taking shape within the so-called Arab-Muslim world and bringing three key dynamics: 1) The prospect of additional countries in the region joining, including the UAE and Egypt and, under certain conditions, Syria at a later stage, 2) The development of a regional framework for cooperation among countries on defense and arms issues and 3) The emergence of an anti-Shia axis that will place greater pressure on Iran in the region and also takes into account India’s growing influence through the IMEC corridor.
The view from Nicosia
Nicosia is approaching the Mecca pact cautiously but remains calm. For the Republic of Cyprus, the key question is whether such close defense cooperation could affect Saudi Arabia within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, where one of Nicosia’s top priorities is ensuring that the secessionist entity known as the TRNC is not recognized. Experienced observers told “K” that the current agreement is unlikely to have a decisive impact on Cyprus in this area, since relations between Nicosia and Riyadh remain excellent on a bilateral level and are also viewed strategically by the Saudis. Nicosia is closely monitoring whether the Riyadh-Ankara rapprochement will affect the traditionally neutral or positive stance maintained by the Gulf countries toward UN resolutions on Cyprus. It is also taking active diplomatic steps to prepare for any possible change in position. Nicosia is also watching how the situation develops, particularly whether Egypt will join the new “alliance,” given that Ankara and Cairo are going through a rapprochement process. The day after the treaty was signed, Turkey sent signals to Sisi, particularly in light of the recent drone attack on the Damietta terminal, an attack that Egyptian media are already attributing to Iran.
The next day
To counter these pressures, the Republic of Cyprus is taking an active approach on the diplomatic front by strengthening its Trilateral Schemes. It is reinforcing its strategic relations with India, Pakistan’s main geopolitical rival, as well as Israel and Egypt, while maintaining channels with Riyadh. Nicosia, in coordination with Athens, is systematically investing in bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to prevent Arab states from fully aligning with Turkish objectives on the Cyprus issue. At the same time, it is strengthening defense ties with Washington and European partners such as France.
