Yiannis Ioannou
Despite the multi-layered, all-against-all contest over what happened in Crans Montana in 2017—a contest that started between Anastasiades and Averof, expanded with former negotiator Mavroyiannis, and included the AKEL leadership's response, all with a dose of poetry—the big picture in the Cyprus problem is taking shape against the backdrop of next September and the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York. Mrs. Holguin Cuellar has moved diplomatically as she knows how, seeing the Foreign Ministers of Greece and Turkey, playing openly with a letter to explain her vision, and more carefully in terms of her own report. Now, the ball of initiative is in front of the Secretary-General.
Mr. Guterres will do what he knows well as head of the United Nations with an issue like the Cyprus problem, which has not only been unresolved for half a century but has also been frozen as to any prospect of talks for the last few years. First, he will see if he can meet the two leaders, then consider whether he can move forward with an international conference in Cyprus, like the one he held in Geneva in 2021.
Whether he succeeds will depend on many factors: Turkey's attitude, our attitude, the UN's preparations, and the Secretary-General's own preparations. The crucial September meeting will not decide whether or not we go to talks but whether or not we have failed on the road back to them. For those who have been following the Cyprus issue for decades, the United Nations has always moved along this logic: not failing and keeping a process alive even if its end does not bring about the desired outcome. In this case, it means returning to the table of dialogue and, as they say, returning "from where we left off in Crans Montana."
Mrs. Holguin Cuellar has done her report and her diplomatic preparation to ensure some fluidity in how this re-entry process will be structured, and how someone like Tatar—who refused to see President Christodoulides during Mrs. Holguin Cuellar's presence in Cyprus—will act this time. However, even if the two leaders meet before Mr. Guterres in New York next September, they will still be called upon to negotiate. What remains to be seen are the red lines of each and the objective difficulty of the seven-year impasse on the Cyprus issue—a development that has already cemented the deadlock.
The period from September to the end of the year will be particularly important, and crucial for whether we will finally get back to some kind of mobility on the Cyprus problem or whether we will be led to a historic closure.
[This op-ed was translated from its Greek original and edited for clarity]
