Pavlos Xanthoulis
The outgoing UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is preparing to play his final card on the Cyprus issue, aiming to set in motion a strategic agreement amid Ankara’s highly controversial stance, maintaining momentum on one hand while making its red lines increasingly clear on the other.
According to community sources speaking to Kathimerini, these red lines have “taken the form of non-negotiable conditions” for Turkey’s meaningful participation in any potential new process.
Turkey’s insistence on securing the “sovereign equality” of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and ensuring the so-called “Three As” from the outset, regardless of the outcome of any possible new UN initiative, namely direct trade, direct flights, and direct relations between the breakaway entity and the international community, effectively amounting to de facto recognition, are being presented by Ankara as “non-negotiable terms.”
At the same time, the Turkish side is closing the door on linking EU-Turkey files with the Cyprus issue. According to information obtained by Kathimerini, Ankara has clearly told European officials that the two issues, EU-Turkey relations and Cyprus, “have never been linked in the past” and that Turkey will not endorse a new agreement that would make EU-Turkey relations “hostages” of the Cyprus problem in the future.
Despite the hard-line positions expressed by the Turkish side, Ankara is keeping the door open to possible developments on Cyprus, naturally on its own terms.
It is not only rejecting the Guterres initiative; it appears to support it.
As a result, foreign diplomatic circles told Kathimerini that “one cannot rule out some kind of positive shift by Ankara on Cyprus, which would allow the UN to undertake a new meaningful initiative,” provided, of course, that Turkey determines that the emerging circumstances are favorable to it.
Of particular interest is the fact that Maria Angela Holguin chose to travel to Turkey tomorrow, only a few days before Guterres’ arrival in Cyprus. Her aim is reportedly to record the latest — and freshest — picture of the Erdogan government’s position on Cyprus.
This would presumably not have been necessary if Ankara had already given the “green light," as the Cyprus government believed it had done.
Hope for movement despite bleak signs
In any case, and despite the negative indications, it is clear that the United Nations is looking for a positive gesture from Ankara.
Guterres’ visit to Cyprus from July 27-29, even if it comes as an “extension” of his trip to Jordan and Syria, continues to create hope that a new effort could emerge towards resolving the Cyprus problem.
After all, no matter how pessimistic one may be, it must be considered that it would be politically naïve for the UN Secretary-General to travel to Cyprus without believing there are “indications” that could lead to meaningful developments.
Developments that, according to foreign diplomatic circles, could initially include the convening of a five-party conference or, for example, the submission of a document serving as a roadmap for the next steps on Cyprus.
“It is customary for such a visit to be accompanied by some substantive announcements,” a foreign diplomatic source told Kathimerini, offering a positive outlook and creating expectations.
“It is inconceivable that Mr. Guterres would come to Cyprus empty-handed but also leave the island empty-handed. I believe this visit should be accompanied by a serious announcement, and, under this perspective, I would not rule out a significant development,” the source said.
Tactical maneuvering or substance?
At the same time, the Turkish side, whether for tactical reasons or matters of substance, is lowering expectations ahead of the upcoming Cyprus discussions.
Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman considers mutual understanding as the starting point for the next steps, essentially referring to confidence-building measures.
“We no longer want negotiations for the sake of negotiations, nor a five-party conference for the sake of a five-party conference,” he said.
Speaking during events marking the anniversary of the Turkish invasion, Erhürman made a pointed reference ahead of Guterres’ arrival in Cyprus:
“Let us first take some serious steps to increase trust, then let us determine the rules of the game before it even begins, and let us not start from where we stopped as if nothing happened, as if nothing was experienced, and thus create another disappointment.”
At the same time, he hinted at the pursuit of securing the “Three As," using the lifting of the so-called “isolation” as a vehicle and citing the “rights of athletes, businessmen, scientists, artists, and children” who, as he said, “cannot be postponed to an uncertain future.”
Turkey’s Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz repeated Ankara’s well-known positions while attending anniversary events marking the invasion in the occupied areas.
Yilmaz did not fail to refer to the pursuit of securing the “sovereign equality” of the breakaway entity.
Yilmaz represented Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who chose not to attend the invasion anniversary celebrations.
His absence led to interpretations that Erdogan was attempting not to undermine the Guterres initiative, just days before the UN chief’s arrival in Cyprus.
However, even if that interpretation is correct, it does not fundamentally alter Turkey’s position regarding either a Cyprus settlement and sovereign equality or the conditions being set for Turkish Cypriot participation in a new process, namely the “Three As” and the ending of what Ankara calls the “isolation” of Turkish Cypriots.
The Turkish moves and the possibility that Nicosia could be caught off guard prompted President Nikos Christodoulides to send his own messages.
He stressed that the continuation of the Republic of Cyprus remains an “unbreakable red line” and that a two-state solution or a disguised confederation is not open for discussion.
He said he would not become “the president of partition," nor would he sign a settlement that is not functional, viable, and sustainable over time.
EU role remains limited
Maria Angela Holguin is expected today to meet in Brussels with the European Commission’s new representative on Cyprus, Executive Vice-President Raffaele Fitto.
Although the EU strongly desires a final settlement of the Cyprus issue and has sought to intervene towards Ankara "within the framework of a discreet diplomatic approach" in order to promote developments on Cyprus while also advancing certain EU-Turkey files, Turkey’s response has been categorically negative.
According to information, during a series of discussions held recently, including the dinner involving Erdogan, Hakan Fidan, Ursula von der Leyen, and Antonio Costa, Ankara rejected any idea of linking the two issues.
Turkey argued that it would not agree to allow EU-Turkey relations to become “hostages” of the Cyprus issue.
At the same time, it called on the EU to work towards ending the so-called “isolation” of the Turkish Cypriot community.
It is noted that Turkey and the Turkish Foreign Ministry responded to the appointment of Italian official Raffaele Fitto in exactly the same way they had responded to the appointment of his predecessor, Johannes Hahn.
The statement issued included almost identical wording, noting that Fitto’s appointment, as with Hahn’s, is an internal EU matter and therefore concerns only the bloc itself.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry also used similar wording, calling on Fitto, as it had called on Hahn, “to work towards changing the EU’s biased stance and recognizing that a Cyprus solution can only be achieved through negotiations between two equal sovereign states, based on the realities on the island.”
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry statements, in practice, limit the prospects of implementing Nicosia’s narrative regarding a more active EU role in the Cyprus issue, an involvement Ankara is clearly attempting to render “inactive.”
