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Even if tensions in the Persian Gulf begin to ease, a quick return to lower energy prices is unlikely. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and gas shipments, would certainly help restore supply. However, it is only one step in the recovery process.
Energy infrastructure across the region has suffered significant damage. Refineries, storage facilities, and production fields in several countries, from Iran to the United Arab Emirates, have been targeted. As a result, global oil supply has dropped by about 10 percent, putting immediate pressure on markets.
Bringing production back online is a complex task. Facilities must be inspected, damaged equipment must be replaced, and workers and transport vessels must return to their positions. Industry experts stress that operations cannot simply restart overnight. The process requires coordination, safety checks, and time.
A ceasefire agreement has allowed ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz again, but uncertainty remains. Attacks continued until shortly before the agreement, and many governments have shared little information about the extent of the damage. This makes it difficult to estimate how long repairs will take.
In the near term, companies will likely focus on exporting oil and fuel that had already been stored near the Gulf. If stability holds, some drilling operations could resume within days or weeks. Still, a full recovery of production capacity will take months. In cases where infrastructure has been heavily damaged, repairs could take years. For consumers, this means fuel prices will likely stay high. Although oil prices briefly declined after the ceasefire announcement, countries are drawing down reserves built up before the conflict. The longer disruptions continue, the more difficult it becomes to bring prices back down.
Shutting down oil and gas wells creates additional challenges. When operations stop, underground pressure can change, water can enter reservoirs, and equipment can deteriorate, especially when exposed to corrosive gases. The longer wells remain inactive, the harder they are to restart. This is particularly true in fields where pressure is maintained through gas or water injection.
The pace of recovery also depends on how much damage has been done to transportation and processing systems. While analysts believe most facilities have not been completely destroyed, reliable information remains limited. Some of the most serious impacts have occurred at major processing hubs. Qatar’s large liquefied natural gas facility at Ras Laffan, which supplies energy to Europe and Asia, has lost part of its capacity. Undamaged sections may restart relatively soon, but rebuilding destroyed components will take much longer because they are highly specialized and custom-built.
Elsewhere in the region, refineries and storage sites are operating below normal levels. In some cases, it could take many months or longer to fully restore operations. Another major obstacle is the shortage of specialized equipment. Global demand for energy infrastructure, driven in part by the expansion of data centers, has strained supply chains. Critical components such as gas turbines often have long delivery times, and even a single missing part can delay an entire repair effort.
Over time, energy markets are expected to stabilize, but prices will likely remain higher than they would have been without the conflict. Some forecasts suggest oil could reach about 80 dollars per barrel by the end of 2026, compared with earlier expectations of around 65 dollars.
