Pavlos Xanthoulis
Nicosia has every reason to expect the immediate management and de-escalation of the migration crisis that hit Ceuta, so it can avoid the return of a harsh climate of discussions and tensions in the EU Council, where talks on Cyprus’s accession to the Schengen area are expected to begin, probably in September. An EU source with excellent knowledge of the subject and the balance of forces in the Council made this point clear to “K,” stressing that a possible continuation of the problem that emerged in Ceuta, with the influx of thousands of irregular migrants into the Spanish enclave from Morocco, is expected to create upheaval across every issue tied to migration and the Schengen area, with clear consequences for Nicosia’s goals as well.
At the same time, the Cypriot government expects discussions on Cyprus’s full participation in the Schengen area to proceed smoothly and without disruption. Officials view the Commission’s recent positive assessment, which finds the island “technically ready” for full participation in the single area, as a strong tool they can put to use. Yet a possible continuation of the crisis in Ceuta could complicate talks on every outstanding issue, including Cyprus. Even with its positive assessment, the Commission also noted the particularities that come with Cyprus’s participation in Schengen, centered on the Green Line and the British Bases.
The full picture must also account for member states in the Council that consistently take a very hard line on migration issues that touch the Schengen area. These include Austria, the Netherlands, the Scandinavian countries, and more recently Germany, given the climate inside the country.
It is no coincidence that although Ceuta sits outside the Schengen area, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez faced a storm of criticism. Some member states, led by Italy, even called for Spain’s participation in the single area to be suspended, arguing that the enclave could become a gateway for irregular migration into the rest of European territory.
The Spanish leader also received a critical letter signed by 22 member states, including Cyprus. For clear strategic reasons, Cyprus chose to line up with the hard line drawn by Rome and Copenhagen, aiming to show its stance ahead of the Council discussions on the island’s accession to the Schengen area. The letter from the 22 told Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez that the perception that irregular entry of migrants could become legal may encourage future attempts, undermine confidence in the common migration policy, and carry implications for all member states.
Uneasy calm
Inside the EU, the crisis in Ceuta is feeding fears that an uncontrolled border line could turn into a gateway for illegal migration to the rest of Europe and affect a large number of member states, and with them the Schengen area. The episode has raised the temperature between member states, which did not hesitate to put Pedro Sánchez on the defensive over the migration policy he is pursuing. Against the prevailing trend in the rest of Europe, the Spanish prime minister had decided to legalize 500,000 irregular migrants living in Spain. That decision produced 1.2 million applications by the June 30 deadline set by Madrid. Traffickers then exploited the Spanish government’s move, spreading false claims on social media that the process remained open to anyone who managed to enter Spain. The result was a flow of tens of thousands of migrants from Morocco a month later, on July 30. The disinformation and the platforms set up on social media were aimed at creating a second major wave by the traffickers on Saturday, August 15. Moroccan police arrested at least 111 people and prevented a new mass attempt at illegal entry into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. Madrid reinforced the security force in Ceuta with 500 additional police officers, bringing the total to more than 1,600, and began building a new maritime barrier. Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska said those who entered illegally would receive neither residence permits nor transfers to mainland Spain, but would be returned to Morocco. That stance did not end criticism from European governments of Madrid’s overall handling of migration.
The Cyprus battle
Nicosia expects Cyprus to become a full member of the Schengen area, or at least to secure a date for accession to the single area, before the current government’s term ends in roughly 18 months. The Commission’s technical assessment is a very positive card for Nicosia, yet no one can predict the direction developments will take once the issue reaches the Council and discussions begin on a unanimous political decision. Bulgaria and Romania held a similarly positive assessment from the Commission dating back to 2011, but secured full participation in the Schengen area only after more than 13 years, in 2025. Croatia was in a better position and needed about three years of political consultations before receiving the Council’s green light, even after a positive Commission assessment.
Nicosia, however, views the circumstances in Cyprus’s case as different enough and is counting on the very positive picture in the Commission’s report regarding the mechanisms and surveillance systems of the Green Line. That position from Brussels, while clearly positive, cannot by itself guarantee a unanimous Council decision, let alone one reached through accelerated procedures, EU circles told “K.” The Commission’s report also refers to Cyprus’s particularities and calls for greater clarity on the measures taken at the Green Line under EU law, as well as for stronger surveillance at the two crossing points controlled by the British Bases. Those points are expected to open discussions in the Council and prompt requests for clarifications.
In any case, Nicosia believes it can convince its European partners of its readiness for full participation in the Schengen area. Officials also estimate that nothing will change on the ground and that any arrangements will stay within the framework of Protocol 10 of the Treaty of Accession. That means the question of establishing additional checks at the Green Line will not arise, a step that would create the image of a hard border between the free and occupied areas and make the prospect of resolving the Cyprus problem even harder. This concern had kept all previous governments after Cyprus’s entry into the EU (Papadopoulos, Christofias, and Anastasiades) from seeking the island’s accession to the Schengen area without a prior resolution of the Cyprus problem.
