Guterres’ Cyprus gamble: Can a multilateral conference break years of deadlock?

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres believes the goal of convening a multilateral conference on the Cyprus issue is "feasible," according to information obtained by Kathimerini, with the UN chief appearing optimistic during his closed-door meetings that he may even be in a position to announce the prospect of such a conference “possibly today.”

The announcement would come after his meetings with President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman.

According to the same sources, despite the undeniable difficulties and the wide gap between the positions of the two sides, whether for tactical or substantive reasons, Guterres gave a positive signal regarding the “prospect of convening a multilateral conference.”

In fact, he appears to have raised the bar himself, making clear that any such conference should also be linked to the resumption of direct negotiations.

A European source told Kathimerini that this is “the UN secretary-general’s last attempt to shake up the stagnant Cyprus talks and create a new path forward.”

The source said Guterres is seeking, on the one hand, to maintain the possibility of a multilateral conference and, on the other, to buy time to bridge the gap between the two sides’ positions, so that the effort can ultimately lead to the resumption of direct negotiations and create conditions for a Cyprus settlement.

However, the effort remains extremely difficult given the fundamentally different positions of Ankara and Nicosia.

Turkey continues to push for a two-state solution, while the Republic of Cyprus insists on the UN framework for a bizonal, bicommunal federation.

According to foreign diplomatic circles, the differences could potentially be overcome through the well-known British approach of “constructive ambiguity”—a method that UN envoy Maria Angela Holguín appears to be exploring, although it has been publicly rejected by Nicosia.

The three-way meeting could determine next steps

A joint meeting between the three leaders is expected today, after which it will become clearer whether Guterres will move forward with his intention regarding the prospect of convening a multilateral conference.

A foreign diplomatic source told Kathimerini yesterday, as this report was being written, that “the announcement and therefore the preservation of the prospect of convening a multilateral conference is the direction the UN secretary-general is pursuing.”

The source added that Guterres is expected to make every effort until the last moment, including during today’s meeting with Christodoulides and Erhürman, to “place the two sides before their responsibilities,” asking them to make concrete contributions that could create momentum.

These could range from opening new crossing points and introducing other confidence-building measures to convening a five-party conference, which would, of course, largely depend on Turkey’s consent.

Guterres: The UN cannot impose peace

As part of his effort to secure and announce something tangible, Guterres reinforced the message he delivered upon his arrival in Cyprus, saying the United Nations “cannot impose peace” but that “only Cypriots, through their leaders, can build it.”

Following his first meeting with President Christodoulides on Tuesday, he also made carefully worded references to the role of the guarantor powers.

Describing his visit as an act of “humility” and “solidarity with the people of Cyprus,” Guterres said his goal was “to show my strong commitment to ensuring that we finally manage to find a solution to the Cyprus issue.”

“Of course, this depends on the Cypriots themselves, while the guarantor powers also have a role to play,” he added, assuring that he would “do everything I can to support Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots at this very important moment.”

On Tuesday night, as this report was being written, Guterres was expected to host a dinner for Christodoulides and Erhürman, while today’s joint meeting between the three is expected to determine whether the UN chief will move ahead with his plan for a multilateral conference.

The major obstacles

Even if Guterres succeeds in moving forward with his plan and announces the intention or prospect of holding a five-party conference, the sharply opposing positions of Ankara and Nicosia over the form of a Cyprus settlement will remain the biggest obstacle.

Turkey is seeking the consolidation of the status of the self-declared “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” through “sovereign equality,” effectively pointing toward two separate entities existing side by side and cooperating.

Ankara also appears unwilling to move away from its demand for prior agreement on “direct flights, direct trade, and direct relations” between the north and the international community, regardless of the outcome of any future negotiations.

Nicosia rejects the logic of a two-state solution and what it views as a disguised confederation, as well as the legitimization of “direct flights, direct trade and direct relations” for the north.

The Republic of Cyprus argues that such a development would lead to the “Taiwanisation” of the breakaway entity and eventually its de facto recognition, removing any incentive for the Turkish side to negotiate a Cyprus settlement or make significant concessions, particularly on territory.

According to foreign diplomatic circles, these differences could potentially be overcome through the British formula of “constructive ambiguity,” allowing Nicosia to argue that it secured a federal solution while Ankara could claim it achieved a confederal arrangement.

Nicosia’s Plan B

If Guterres’ effort to convene a multilateral conference and restart direct negotiations fails, government sources in Nicosia believe the outgoing UN secretary-general, whose term ends at the end of 2026, will seek to leave behind groundwork for his successor.

President Christodoulides had also referred to this possibility at the National Council, although no one can predict what role the next UN secretary-general will choose to play.

Speaking after the Christodoulides-Guterres meeting, government spokesperson Konstantinos Letymbiotis said the UN chief has placed the resumption of negotiations from where they previously stopped as the goal, something that fully aligns with the Republic of Cyprus’ position.

However, Kathimerini understands that this was not raised either by Maria Angela Holguín or Antonio Guterres in their communications with the Turkish government, which considers any reference to restarting the process from where it ended at Crans-Montana a “red line.”

Letymbiotis reiterated Nicosia’s positions, saying any solution must be based on a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality, the EU acquis, European principles and values, international law, and alignment with the EU’s four fundamental freedoms.

Speaking after his meeting with Tufan Erhürman, Guterres stressed the need to examine “whether confidence-building measures can be developed in a way that benefits the people of Cyprus on both sides,” an approach that appears to have been raised by the Turkish Cypriot leader.