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The Middle East faces heightened tensions following two significant Israeli strikes. Last night, Israeli forces targeted and killed Fouad Soukr, a key member of Lebanon's Shi'ite Hezbollah organization, in Beirut. Shortly after, they eliminated Ismail Haniyeh, the de facto leader of Hamas, while he was in Iran for the inauguration of the new Iranian President.
These actions represent a severe blow to Iran's "Axis of Resistance" and set the stage for potential retaliation from Hezbollah and Iran, marking a critical escalation point since Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7.
The elimination of these leaders sends multiple messages:
- No one is safe, and Israel's security apparatus has deeply infiltrated these organizations.
- To Washington, Israel signals its willingness to neutralize Hezbollah figures that the U.S. has been unable to target since the 1983 Beirut barracks bombings. This move could complicate U.S. efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza or a prisoner exchange.
- Strategically, it warns Hamas leaders in Gaza and Tehran, particularly during Iran's political transition.
The aftermath of these strikes could see serious escalations, potentially leading to a broader conflict or an Israel-Hezbollah war reminiscent of the July 2006 war. Key issues to watch include Hezbollah's response, possibly with strategic missile strikes, and whether Iran will retaliate directly or through proxies in Yemen, Iraq, or Syria.
The region is now at a critical juncture, with the next 24 hours likely to test the limits of deterrence and the potential for a broader escalation.
[Summary of Yiannis Ioannou's original story in Greek published in Kathimerini's Cyprus edition]
