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According to an article by Pavlos Xanthoulis, the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, prepares to unveil a new migration and refugee framework in February 2025, significant challenges loom, from escalating conflict in Syria to contentious legal and political disputes within the EU. The legislation aims to reform the rules governing refugee returns, offering new pathways for deportations to countries deemed "safe." However, geopolitical tensions and internal EU dynamics are complicating the process.
Syria’s Turmoil: A Key Stumbling Block
The worsening situation in Syria poses a significant obstacle to returning refugees to the war-torn country. Nicosia, which has been advocating for a unified EU policy on deportations to Syria, faces setbacks as the deteriorating security situation undermines plans for such initiatives. Sources close to EU officials indicate that while informal talks with Syrian factions not under sanctions had been considered, the resurgence of hostilities makes any agreements highly uncertain. Officials emphasize that the Commission's final stance will depend on how the conflict evolves, leaving returns to Syria off the table for now.
Italy-Albania Deal Under Scrutiny
Italy’s controversial deal with Albania to house refugees in offshore facilities is under judicial review. The Italian Supreme Court is examining the legality of the arrangement, which has already faced criticism for ethical violations and apparent breaches of EU law. Under the agreement, Italy pays Albania €160 million annually to host up to 3,000 migrants in detention-like conditions, raising questions about the EU’s commitment to human rights. This model, though criticized, could influence the Commission's new framework. EU officials are exploring similar agreements with countries outside the bloc, drawing parallels to past deals with Turkey, Libya, and Tunisia.
Parliamentary Dynamics: A Swing to the Right
The European Parliament’s shifting political landscape may help von der Leyen push her agenda forward. With the body leaning further to the right after recent elections, legislative hurdles are expected to be less pronounced. However, humanitarian organizations have already flagged concerns about potential overreach and ethical compromises in the proposed legislation. Observers note that von der Leyen’s alignment with prominent conservative leaders, such as European People's Party (EPP) head Manfred Weber, strengthens her position. In Germany, Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz has called for even stricter measures, including large-scale deportations to Syria and Afghanistan, setting the tone for upcoming debates.
Balancing Security and Ethics
The Commission's draft legislation seeks to revise the EU’s legal framework for deportations, particularly to unstable regions. Current laws prohibit returns to unsafe countries like Syria and Afghanistan. The new proposal reportedly explores options for sending migrants to "safe third countries," building on models like the Italy-Albania agreement and EU-Turkey deal, but without offering compensatory measures to these nations. Von der Leyen hinted at these plans in a letter to EU leaders in October, advocating for the establishment of return hubs outside the EU. Discussions have also included North African countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Algeria as potential partners.
Looking Ahead
As February approaches, the Commission faces mounting pressure to strike a balance between the EU’s security priorities and its humanitarian obligations. The legal, ethical, and political complexities surrounding the proposed reforms underscore the challenges ahead for von der Leyen's leadership. Whether the EU can deliver a cohesive migration strategy that satisfies both its member states and critics remains to be seen. For now, rising tensions in Syria and debates over controversial agreements like the Italy-Albania deal ensure the migration issue will stay at the forefront of European politics.
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