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A year after hostilities erupted in Israel, the conflict has now expanded to Lebanon, reigniting fears about the stability of the Middle East.
According to Apostolos Tomaras' article published in Kathimerini Cyprus in Greek, intense Israeli airstrikes in the north are raising alarm over the potential collapse of Lebanon's political system, leading to widespread humanitarian concerns. Thousands of Lebanese civilians are fleeing Beirut, reversing years of progress and pushing the country closer to political chaos. The situation is causing growing anxiety not only among neighboring countries but also in the European Union (EU), which had recently offered political and financial support to Lebanon to prevent exactly this kind of fallout.
Cyprus is particularly concerned, given its geographical proximity to the conflict zone. Nicosia is closely monitoring the situation, with fears of a significant surge in migrant flows from Lebanon—a situation that the island nation is struggling to manage, even in more stable times. Although evacuations of third-country nationals from Lebanon remain controlled, Cyprus is preparing for potential escalation.
Since the onset of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, Cyprus has aligned its policy with the EU in offering support to Beirut. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides has made two visits to Lebanon, once alongside the European Commission president, to solidify the Lebanese government’s position and stave off a larger humanitarian disaster. The collaboration between Cyprus and Lebanon, particularly in managing migrant flows, has so far been effective. Lebanon has managed to curb the number of migrants arriving by sea, preventing a social crisis in Cyprus and easing pressure on Brussels.
However, the recent intensification of hostilities threatens to undo these efforts. Nicosia's greatest fear is that Lebanon’s political system will collapse, leading to a fresh surge of refugees, especially as around two million illegal migrants already reside on Lebanon's coast, waiting for a chance to escape to Europe, often through Cyprus.
On the humanitarian front, Cyprus is more optimistic, drawing on its experience from previous crises in Lebanon in 2006 and 2022. The Estia project, designed to help evacuate foreign nationals, is currently inactive, as no country has yet requested assistance. Diplomatic sources suggest that a full-blown evacuation is unlikely, although up to 26,000 people could be moved if necessary—significantly fewer than the 60,000 evacuated during the 2006 conflict.
Countries such as Portugal, the U.S., the U.K., and Germany have already coordinated the evacuation of their citizens, most of whom left Lebanon via commercial flights. Despite some airlines, including Cyprus Airways, suspending flights to Beirut, the airport remains operational, in contrast to 2006 when it was bombed and closed, trapping thousands.
While European nationals can be evacuated relatively easily, third-country nationals pose a more complex challenge. These individuals would need to be registered upon arrival in Cyprus and remain on the island until onward travel can be arranged. Typically, their stay does not exceed a week, but strict security measures are in place to ensure they cannot move freely.
Amid growing fears of a prolonged conflict, Cyprus is also ramping up military cooperation with international partners. The U.S. has recently increased its military presence on the island to assist with potential evacuations, should the need arise. Meanwhile, the U.K. has denied using its bases in Cyprus for humanitarian operations, although other countries like Germany and the Netherlands have already sent troops to assist.
