Newsroom / CNA
The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) continued its positive year-over-year growth trend in April 2023, providing further support for the economic forecasts of the Cypriot economy. Despite expectations of a slowdown, the economy is expected to avoid entering a recession, as indicated by the Economics Research Centre (ERC) of the Department of Economics at the University of Cyprus.
In April 2023, the CCLEI witnessed a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, following a 0.6% increase in March and a 0.6% decrease in February, based on recent and revised data.
The positive year-over-year growth rate observed in April is attributed to the favorable performance of both domestic and international components of the CCLEI compared to the same period in 2022. Notably, the international price of Brent Crude contributed to the overall rise in the CCLEI, despite its year-over-year growth rate remaining negative.
Furthermore, the ERC highlights that April's tourist arrivals surpassed not only the arrivals of the previous year but also those of the pre-pandemic year of 2019. This, combined with an acceleration in the year-over-year growth rate of other domestic components, further strengthens the upward trajectory of the CCLEI.
However, it is important to note that the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in Cyprus recorded positive year-over-year growth rates in March and April 2023, while the ESI in the euro area continued to experience negative growth rates. This reflects the prevailing global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, which has somewhat tempered the CCLEI's upward momentum.
