Cyprus’ diplomatic gamble: Can its US ties withstand Trump’s return?

The dramatic public humiliation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President Marco Rubio sent shockwaves through the global political stage, signaling that Trump’s second term will be nothing like his first. The event underscored how international law can be easily undermined and long-standing alliances shaken, raising urgent questions about European defense and security. For Cyprus, which had recently strengthened ties with the U.S., the developments bring uncertainty about its diplomatic future.

A Western Pivot Now in Question

President Nikos Christodoulides’ visit to Washington last November, where he met then-President Joe Biden, marked a turning point for Cyprus. The trip solidified the country’s western orientation and was a diplomatic victory for Christodoulides, whose government had been struggling with domestic challenges. U.S. Ambassador Judy Davis played a key role in fostering this closer relationship, particularly as Cyprus aligned itself with U.S. policies on Russia, even offering full cooperation with the FBI on sanctions enforcement.

However, Trump’s return to power has raised concerns about whether this alliance will hold. Trump’s lack of commitment to international law and his unpredictable foreign policy, particularly his admiration for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, pose significant challenges for Cyprus. Additionally, the departure of Ambassador Davis in the coming months adds further uncertainty about the future of U.S.-Cyprus relations.

Strategic Interests vs. Uncertain Commitments

Despite the shifting landscape, Nicosia remains cautiously optimistic. Officials point to several factors that may keep U.S. support intact:
- The Strategic Dialogue Agreement between Cyprus and the U.S. was first established under Trump’s previous administration.
- Cyprus' strong ties with Israel, a key U.S. ally, could work in its favor.
- The island’s strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly given ongoing conflicts in Syria and the region.

Yet, complacency is risky. Cyprus has placed significant diplomatic weight on alliances with the U.S. and Israel—two nations that now openly challenge international norms. In response, Cypriot diplomats are adopting a strategy of low visibility, aiming to avoid provoking Trump’s administration or interfering with its economic interests.

Turkey’s Growing Influence

Another major concern is Turkey’s rising influence in the region. As Trump openly praises Erdoğan and Turkey plays a pivotal role in conflicts such as Syria and Ukraine, Cyprus risks being sidelined. The recent Syria summit hosted by France further demonstrated this reality—despite its regional importance, Cyprus was not invited, while Turkey took center stage.

Cyprus must now navigate a delicate balancing act. While it has expressed interest in joining NATO, an alliance where Turkey plays a significant role, it has also positioned itself as an opponent of Turkish expansionism. This paradox raises questions about Nicosia’s long-term strategy—will it push for an anti-Turkey coalition, or will it align itself with broader European security efforts?

A Shifting Global Order

As the EU begins to reassess its own defense and security role, Cyprus faces a crucial decision. President Christodoulides has pledged a commitment to the West, but the definition of “West” is changing. The world is no longer divided along traditional East-West lines, but rather between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes that disregard international law.

With Trump’s presidency reshaping global alliances, Cyprus must determine where it stands in this new geopolitical order. The choices it makes now will define its role in the region for years to come.

*This article was translated and summarized from its Greek original.  To read more of  Marina Economidou's article and gain full access to in-depth reports (in Greek), subscribe now to Kathimerini's print edition and stay informed with comprehensive coverage on this and more!