Yiannis Ioannou
An intriguing, if modest, scenario is unfolding around efforts to revive stalled Cyprus reunification talks, as the second meeting between President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar is set for 5 May, their first since Geneva. Expectations for a breakthrough remain low, but the diplomatic wheels are turning.
Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit the occupied north of the island in early May for the grand opening of the new “presidential palace” complex of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (“TRNC”). While the visit is officially ceremonial, its timing and tone suggest heavy political symbolism, especially in light of the recent headscarf controversy and the upcoming October “elections” in the occupied areas.
Behind the scenes: Negotiators get to work
Ahead of the Christodoulides-Tatar meeting, their chief negotiators — Menelaos Menelaou and Günes Onar — are due to meet early next week to dig into the thorniest issues still blocking progress. This includes ongoing disagreements over crossing points and the implementation of technical committees under the confidence-building framework (MoU) agreed upon earlier.
Their goal is to prepare the ground for the leaders' talks and keep the process alive, even if momentum is slow.
It’s worth recalling that in their previous meeting on April 2, the two leaders agreed to set up a new bi-communal Technical Committee on Youth to explore environmental cooperation, the restoration of cemeteries, and even to discuss denuclearization at the level of their respective representatives. They also asked their teams to continue talks on solar energy initiatives in the buffer zone and improving crossings.
Just before the Easter break, the Greek Cypriot side announced the names of its representatives to the Youth Committee, a small but meaningful sign that some technical MoUs are progressing. Still, major issues, like the solar park proposal in the buffer zone and roadblock disputes, remain stumbling blocks.
Erdogan’s visit: A political signal wrapped in ceremony
It may have come late, but Ankara has now weighed in on the headscarf controversy that recently sparked tension in the occupied territories. Addressing his ruling party's central committee, Erdogan responded with unmistakable sharpness: “This is unacceptable. In the coming days, we will visit the ‘TRNC’ and deliver the necessary messages. When you don’t set limits for them, they don’t know their place.”
This wasn’t just political theater. Erdogan, facing his own political challenges at home following the jailing of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, is using the visit to reassert control and send a message.
His trip to occupied Nicosia is officially to inaugurate the lavish new “presidential” compound touted by the Tatar administration as a major achievement. But observers say his visit is aimed at sending clear signals both to the Turkish Cypriot community and beyond, including where he stands on the headscarf saga, the Cyprus issue, and the October “elections.”
Two key questions loom:
- Will Erdogan use his visit to politically sideline Tatar over the headscarf backlash, potentially paving the way for opposition candidate Tufan Erhurman to gain ground?
- Or will he throw his weight fully behind Tatar and double down on the two-state solution rhetoric, in a repeat of 2020, when Ankara’s backing was instrumental in Tatar’s victory over Mustafa Akinci?
*This article was translated from its Greek original
