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A recent YouGov survey reveals that a majority of voters in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and Denmark prefer the election victory of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, in Tuesday’s elections.
Danish voters emerged as the strongest supporters of Harris, with 81% favoring her. They were followed by 71% of German voters, 65% in Spain, 62% in France, and 61% in the UK. In Italy, 46% expressed a preference for Harris, nearly double that of former President Donald Trump.
Support for Harris is notably strong among left-leaning and centrist voters across Europe, with approval ratings reaching between 80% and 90% among Social Democrats and Greens in Germany, Sumar in Spain, Emmanuel Macron's party and the Socialist Party in France, Democrats in Sweden, and Liberal Democrats in the UK.
Even among those who recently voted for traditional center-right parties, a significant number favored Harris over Trump, with 89% of Venstre voters in Denmark, 78% of Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) in Germany, 66% of People’s Party voters in Spain, and 58% of Conservative Party voters in the UK supporting Harris.
Notably, even among Western Europeans who recently supported far-right, nationalist, and populist parties, many expressed a preference for Harris over her Republican opponent. However, Trump remains the favored candidate among far-right voters in Spain, the UK, Germany, and Italy. In Spain, 54% of Vox voters prefer Trump, compared to 23% for Harris. Similarly, 51% of Reform Party voters in the UK, 50% of Alternative for Germany voters, and 44% of Brothers of Italy voters support Trump.
Contrarily, 49% of far-right Swedish Democrats prefer Harris over 31% for Trump, while 46% of those who supported Marine Le Pen in France's 2022 presidential runoff favor Harris, compared to 31% for Trump.
Despite this preference for Harris, Europeans express uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. elections.
Regarding the performance of incumbent President Joe Biden, respondents rated it as “average,” with agreement ranging from 39% in the UK to 47% in Germany. Many believe Harris would perform better, with significant majorities in each country suggesting she would be a "great" or "good" leader—64% in Denmark, 57% in Germany, and 45% in Spain.
Expectations are notably lower for Trump, with most respondents, ranging from 48% in Italy to 77% in Denmark, believing he would be a “bad” or “very bad” president.
Finally, if Trump loses next week, many in Western Europe anticipate violence. In Denmark, 73% believe there will "certainly" or "probably" be violence if Harris wins, with similar sentiments echoed by 62% to 67% in most participating countries. Italy stands out with only 47% seeing violence as likely, although this is still higher than the 32% who consider it unlikely.
