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The re-election of Donald Trump raises significant questions about the future of U.S. foreign policy, particularly in relation to Cyprus and U.S.-Turkish relations, according to Kathimerini's Yiannis Ioannou. Despite the global shift in power dynamics due to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Trump’s return to the presidency is unlikely to result in drastic changes in U.S. positions on the Cyprus issue, especially regarding Washington's long-standing support for a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation. This remains a key aspect of U.S. policy, with little indication of a shift in priorities, even under Trump.
However, the dynamics of U.S.-Cyprus relations may evolve differently during Trump's second term. Cyprus officials are concerned about the overemphasis on President Christodoulides' recent visit to the White House, especially after a controversial leak of a meeting with a Trump ally. There is also speculation about the potential appointment of Richard Grenell, who has experience in both Kosovo and Europe and could play a role in shaping U.S. policy on Cyprus.
Trump's re-election comes at a time when his previous term (2016-2020) was defined by key foreign policy actions in the Middle East, including the neutralization of Iranian General Qassim Soleimani and the promotion of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations. Trump's stance on Ukraine has also evolved, with his emphasis on direct talks with Russia and a reduction in military aid, which complicates the broader international landscape.
As for Turkey, a key player in the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, U.S.-Turkish relations are seen as a crucial area of concern. Under Trump, there may be more room for dialogue with Turkish President Erdogan, especially after the Biden administration's refusal to engage directly with him. While public rhetoric from Turkey continues to advocate for the recognition of two states in Cyprus, there are signs of cautious optimism regarding the Cyprus talks. A potential thaw in relations with Turkey may depend on progress in broader Euro-Turkish relations, as well as internal political changes in the Turkish-occupied territories in Cyprus.
In conclusion, while Trump’s presidency is likely to maintain U.S. support for Cyprus' sovereignty, the shifting global landscape, especially with respect to Turkey and the Middle East, could open new opportunities or challenges for Cyprus in the years ahead.
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