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In the lead-up to the 2024 election, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in national polls and key swing states. While it’s improbable, there’s a slim chance they could end up tied in the Electoral College with 269 votes each. If such a tie were to occur, the next steps would involve the House of Representatives choosing the president and the Senate selecting the vice president, according to the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.
In this scenario, each state delegation would cast a vote for one of the top three candidates based on electoral votes. Given that Republicans are likely to have a majority in state delegations, Trump could gain the upper hand. Meanwhile, the Senate, expected to flip to Republican control, would elect the vice president, requiring a majority of 51 votes.
An Electoral College tie, though unlikely—predicted to have a 1 in 300 chance—could happen in a few ways. For instance, Harris could win most states Biden took in 2020 except for Michigan and Pennsylvania, or she could secure North Carolina while Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. A tie could also result from Harris capturing the critical “blue wall” states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) while Trump wins other swing states.
There's also the possibility that the election becomes “contingent” if a third-party candidate earns electoral votes. This is unlikely but could happen if electors do not vote for the candidates that voters in their states chose. Such “faithless electors” are rare but have occurred in past elections.
Currently, there are 94 electoral votes up for grabs in the seven swing states plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. If Harris secures all non-swing states that Biden won in 2020, she would start with 225 electoral votes, while Trump would have 219.
Electoral College ties have only occurred once, in the election of 1800, leading to a lengthy voting process in Congress. Historically, the Constitution allocates each state a number of electors based on its congressional representation, totaling 538 nationwide. Although electors are typically pledged to vote for their state's winning candidate, some states have penalties for those who stray from this pledge. Only Maine and Nebraska use a different method for allocating their electors, making Nebraska's 2nd District particularly crucial in this tight race.
Ultimately, while a tie scenario is remote, the implications could profoundly affect the political landscape, highlighting the complexities of the U.S. electoral process.
Source: Forbes
