By Eleftheria Kourtali
Greek banks are attractive targets for mergers and acquisitions, according to Deutsche Bank, with Eurobank and Piraeus Bank standing out in particular. The bank also suggests that Bank of Cyprus could be a potential target for National Bank of Greece.
Interest among Greek banks in M&A activity is especially strong, with a focus on international expansion and efforts to boost revenues through deals in fee-generating sectors such as insurance and wealth management. However, beyond domestic and regional consolidation, Deutsche Bank notes that Greek lenders are also increasingly attractive as international takeover targets.
Alpha Bank remains the most obvious target, with UniCredit already holding close to one-third of its shares. However, given that the Italian lender is currently focused on its efforts to gain control of Commerzbank and potentially explore opportunities in Italy, Deutsche Bank believes there is no immediate urgency for a full takeover of Alpha Bank. Still, it sees the bank as a valuable long-term addition to UniCredit’s structure, possibly within the next few quarters or years.
Deutsche Bank also views Piraeus Bank and Eurobank as appealing acquisition targets. Piraeus would represent a simpler and easier-to-integrate option, with a lower market capitalization and full exposure to the Greek market. Eurobank, however, would also be a strong choice for investors seeking exposure beyond Greece, including markets such as Bulgaria and Cyprus, a view that aligns with recent comments from banking executives.
National Bank of Greece is considered the least likely candidate for M&A activity, according to Deutsche Bank, mainly due to its larger size (second only to Eurobank) and its position as the most expensive bank in the country. As the only Greek bank with state participation (8.4%), a potential sale of this stake could open the door for a foreign bank to enter its ownership structure, although this is currently seen as unlikely, with the government showing no urgency.
Bank of Cyprus could also be a strong strategic fit for National Bank of Greece, Deutsche Bank adds, especially since much of the remaining Cypriot banking sector is already effectively in the hands of Greek banks. However, it appears unlikely that the Cypriot government would be willing to see its banking sector left without a major domestic player. In addition, recent banking consolidations in countries such as Spain and Germany suggest that the appeal for foreign buyers may also be more limited.
