After the 'white smoke', phase two begins for von der Leyen

The attempt to reassure Georgia Meloni to agree to the European Council's decision to back the trio of Ursula von der Leyen for a second term as President of the Commission, Antonio Costa as President of the European Council, and Kaja Kallas as High Representative dominated attention in Brussels throughout Thursday's session. Despite these efforts, unanimity on the choice of names was not achieved.

It was reported around midnight Cyprus time (after 23:00 local time) that the Italian Prime Minister voted against Mr. Costa and Ms. Kallas but abstained on the green light for Ms. von der Leyen. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban voted against Ms. von der Leyen, in favor of Mr. Costa, while abstaining on Ms. Kallas.

These choices each send their own political message about the positions of the two leaders, but the most significant aspect of the next day's scenario belongs to Georgia Meloni's choice to abstain rather than vote against Ursula von der Leyen.

Three-dimensional puzzle

The "one more step that remains," as the Commission President said at the press conference immediately after the session, is the vote to confirm her nomination in the plenary of the European Parliament.

In the vote, the political groups of the European People's Party, the Social Democrats, and the Liberals theoretically have the seats needed to approve Ms. von der Leyen's second term of office. However, due to expected losses, the votes of Ms. Meloni's party will be decisive. On Thursday evening, Ms. von der Leyen stressed that she would start working to secure votes from the three groups and from MEPs from other political groups, particularly at the level of national delegations.

Therefore, the focus now shifts to what exactly Ms. Meloni is asking for in exchange for her support, possibly relating to the portfolio (or vice-presidency) that Italy will receive in the next Commission, and messages to the political groups in the Parliament regarding committee chairs.

All of this connects to the "three-dimensional puzzle" of selecting the Commissioners. As a senior Commission official described it, if Ms. von der Leyen is confirmed, she will ask all Member States for their proposals for the composition of the College. She will then balance each candidate's profile with the portfolio each country will take, the likelihood of ratification by the plenary, and gender equality.

Why she disagreed

In a post immediately after the meeting, Meloni reiterated her position that the proposal of the three political groups for the EU leadership "is wrong both in its methodology and in its substance." She decided not to support it "out of respect for the citizens" and their choices in the European elections, adding that "we continue to work to finally give Italy the weight it deserves in Europe."

A standout moment from Thursday's events was the fact that President Christodoulides was the only leader to meet with Meloni, a meeting that had been arranged since Wednesday evening. According to government sources, the meeting continued the pre-existing good relationship between the two leaders, with the President choosing to contribute as much as he can to the behind-the-scenes and public "de-escalation" of the majority leaders with Meloni. In turn, Meloni chose to be productive in discussing amendments to the Strategic Agenda.

There were several interpretations among journalists, with no one sure whether Christodoulides was an intermediary between the EPP and Meloni, or whether the two used the opportunity to advance their respective narratives ahead of the summit.

[This article was translated from its Greek original]