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Germany’s intelligence agency estimates there is an 80-90% probability that the coronavirus accidentally leaked from a Chinese laboratory, according to German media reports citing a 2020 assessment by the BND (Federal Intelligence Service), which was never made public.
The BND reportedly found indications that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were conducting experiments to modify viruses, making them more transmissible to humans as part of scientific research. However, China has consistently rejected this scenario, insisting that the origins of the pandemic "should be determined by scientists." Beijing also cites a World Health Organization (WHO) study that deemed the lab leak theory "extremely unlikely."
To date, there is no consensus on how the COVID-19 pandemic began. The lab leak hypothesis remains highly contested among scientists, many of whom argue that no definitive evidence supports it.
Nonetheless, the theory is gaining traction among certain intelligence agencies. The BND is the latest to reportedly endorse it. In January, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) also suggested that a lab leak was "more likely" than an animal-to-human transmission.
According to the German newspapers Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung, BND officials met in Berlin in 2020 to investigate the origins of COVID-19 in an operation known as "Project Saaremaa." While they assessed the lab leak theory as "plausible," they found no conclusive proof. However, their research uncovered evidence of multiple breaches of safety regulations at the Wuhan lab.
The assessment was commissioned by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office, but the findings were never publicly released.
According to German media, the report was shared with the CIA in the fall of 2024.
In January, the CIA reiterated that a "research laboratory" was the most likely origin of the virus "based on the available body of reports," though the agency acknowledged it had "low confidence" in this conclusion.
Both the BND and outgoing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declined to comment.
In response to the reports, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning stated: "We believe that tracing the origins of COVID-19 is a scientific issue that should be determined by scientists using a scientific approach. The joint China-WHO expert team concluded that a lab leak was extremely unlikely after on-site visits to relevant laboratories in Wuhan and in-depth discussions with researchers."
She added: "This authoritative scientific conclusion has been widely recognized by the international and scientific communities. China firmly opposes any form of political manipulation regarding the tracing of COVID-19’s origin."
With information from BBC and Deutsche Welle.
