Yiannis Ioannou
The visit to Cyprus by UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ personal envoy, María Ángela Holguín, has ended without a key result: no date was announced for an international conference on the Cyprus issue, despite hopes it could be convened in February.
The Colombian diplomat, who has been on the island since Monday, held a trilateral meeting with President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman. However, she was unable to secure a joint statement committing the two sides to a conference aimed at restarting negotiations. At the same time, she stopped short of declaring a deadlock.
Instead, efforts on Cyprus appear to be continuing at a much lower level, focused mainly on confidence-building measures already agreed in past rounds. The broader political picture, meanwhile, seems to be pushing any meaningful developments further down the road — possibly into the second half of 2026.
In simple terms, there was no breakthrough, but also no collapse.
Where things stand
The UN’s official statement carefully summed up the lack of progress in diplomatic language. It said the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders met on Wednesday morning at Holguín’s invitation, stressing that direct dialogue remains essential for sharing views, concerns and expectations, especially at what the UN described as a “pre-negotiation phase.”
According to the statement, the two leaders exchanged proposals aimed at charting a path toward substantive talks and reviewed progress on confidence-building measures previously placed on the table. They agreed to continue efforts both on those measures and toward the eventual resumption of meaningful negotiations.
What the statement does not say outright is that the sides remain far apart.
At the core of the impasse is Erhürman’s long-standing position that four preconditions must be met before talks can restart. President Christodoulides has responded with a counterproposal of five points, described as a “4+1” approach, which he outlined in detail before and after the trilateral meeting.
The gap between the two approaches, combined with the lack of agreement on confidence-building measures, particularly on opening new crossing points, points, for now, to a clear absence of tangible progress.
The president’s counter-proposal
Christodoulides went into the meeting with a detailed response to Erhürman’s demands. His proposal includes:
Convening an international conference based on the convergences already achieved on both internal and external aspects of the Cyprus problem
A clear reference to the agreed basis for a Cyprus settlement, reaffirming the UN’s joint statement from the leaders’ first meeting under Holguín
The opening of four new crossing points at Kokkina, Louroujina, Mia Milia and Athienou–Aglantzia
Unilateral measures in favor of Turkish Cypriots
These proposals appear aimed mainly at addressing what the Greek Cypriot side sees as ambiguity from the Turkish Cypriot leadership over the form of a settlement. While the rhetoric of a two-state solution has been toned down, references to political equality have resurfaced in the form of “sovereign” equality, a shift that remains deeply contentious.
At the same time, the president’s proposal sidesteps calls for strict timelines, arguing that significant progress has already been made over time on many substantive chapters of the Cyprus issue.
According to information obtained by K, further meetings between the two leaders may take place in the coming period.
What comes next
What is becoming increasingly clear is that the Cyprus talks will not restart anytime soon, but neither will they be formally declared dead.
The process will continue, for now, through discussions on confidence-building measures at the level of negotiators, whom Holguín met on Monday. On Thursday, January 29, the renewal of UNFICYP’s mandate is expected to pass without complications.
Beyond that, the bigger picture, and whether an international conference can eventually be convened, will depend on three key factors: Turkey’s stance, particularly in its dual relationship with the Turkish Cypriot leadership and the European Union; how Cyprus uses its EU presidency to build diplomatic leverage toward Ankara; and the wider international geopolitical climate.
For the moment, the message from the UN envoy’s visit is cautious and familiar: the door remains open, just not anytime soon.
*Read the Greek version here.
