Newsroom
As Cyprus gears up for the upcoming elections, the focus among party insiders has shifted to what will secure victory for the traditional parties and their leaders and what factors will influence voter turnout. Rather than solely targeting new voters, the primary goal for these parties is to energize their existing support base and prevent any shifts in allegiance.
Both DISY and AKEL, the major political players, are witnessing significant surges in support, along with a resurgence of voters who previously abstained from participating in elections.
According to a recent poll commissioned by "K" and conducted by Symmetron Market Research, the Democratic Rally maintains its lead with 22.8%, closely followed by AKEL at 21.6%. Despite facing internal challenges and publicized crises, DISY maintains a formidable support base at 72.2%. Notably, DISY has seen an influx of support from ELAM, representing 18.8% of former far-right party voters from previous parliamentary elections. Additionally, there's a significant return from the 2021 abstention, accounting for 12.8%, along with 10% from voters who previously supported alternative parties. DISY's support base also includes former AKEL voters (2.2%), DIKO voters (3.5%), EDEK voters (2.9%), DIPA voters (5.3%), and environmentalists (9.5%). The recent resurgence of DISY could be attributed to the change in leadership, with dissatisfied voters from 2016 now showing renewed support. Despite a slight dip in popularity since last February, Anita Dimitriou still maintains a positive image, with 49% of voters viewing her favorably and 39% unfavorably.
However, while DISY gains support from ELAM, it also faces some leakage, with 11.3% of its support base shifting away, along with 5.2% of undecided voters. Consequently, DISY has escalated its rivalry with AKEL, cautioning that voting for ELAM indirectly supports AKEL in the upcoming elections and adopting a more conservative stance on LGBTQI issues. DISY's stronghold lies in Nicosia at 24.3%, followed closely by Famagusta at 24%, Larnaca at 22.8%, Limassol at 21.4%, and Paphos at 21.1%. The age group most supportive of DISY is 40-59, comprising 25.3%, followed by those aged 60 and older at 23.2%, and 18-39-year-olds at 18.9%.
AKEL closely trails DISY with 21.6%, having rallied to 81.7%. Notably, AKEL gains 15.6% support from those who abstained in the 2021 elections, possibly linked to leadership changes within AKEL. AKEL receives minimal support from undecided voters (1.7%), DIKO voters (5.3%), and environmentalists (9%). However, AKEL faces significant losses to the newly formed Volt party, with 5.4% of its 2021 voters shifting allegiance. AKEL's support is strongest in Larnaca at 28.3%, followed by Limassol at 21.7%, Nicosia at 19.8%, Paphos at 18.7%, and Famagusta at 18.3%. The age group most supportive of AKEL is voters aged 60 and older, comprising 29.8%, followed by 18-39-year-olds at 18.8%, and 40-59-year-olds at 17.2%. AKEL's subdued campaign strategy reflects its confidence in retaining its existing support base, avoiding conflict with DISY to encourage voter turnout while also appealing to the center-right.
DIKO secures fourth place in the poll with 9.1%, having rallied to 68.4%. Emphasizing its party's history in the election campaign aims to bolster support. DIKO receives support from EDEK (8.6%), environmentalists (4.8%), and those who abstained in 2021 (6.4%). However, DIKO faces significant losses to ELAM, losing 10.5% of its support base, leading to heightened tensions between the two parties. DIKO's support is strongest in Paphos at 11.9%, followed by Famagusta at 10.3%, Larnaca at 9.3%, Nicosia at 8.9%, and Limassol at 7.9%. Voters aged 60 and older are DIKO's strongest supporters, comprising 14.4%, followed by 40-59-year-olds at 8.9%, while support among 18-39-year-olds is minimal at 3.3%.
ELAM secures third place with 10.7%, attracting support from various sources, including DIKO (10.5%), Socialist voters (17.1%), DIPA voters (5.3%), and abstainers (6.4%). ELAM also gains support from former ELAM voters, accounting for 18.8% of its support base. While there's a perception that ELAM's primary support comes from DISY, the survey suggests otherwise. ELAM attracts 75% of its former supporters and 2.2% of former AKEL voters. Compared to the previous "K" poll in February, ELAM's support has increased by 1.6%.
[Summary of Marina Economides' original story in Greek published in Kathimerini's Cyprus edition]
