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Over the past two decades, an educational revolution swept through much of the developing world. Thousands of colleges sprang up in cities large and small, as farmers, laborers, and herders pooled their savings to send their children to school, hoping they would become lawyers, engineers, and diplomats.
However, things didn’t turn out as expected. These economies now face a glut of university graduates, but they lack the white-collar jobs to employ them. Waves of young graduates are left unemployed and frustrated, stalling the rise of this emerging middle class.
Youth unemployment in developing countries is two to three times higher for those with university degrees compared to their counterparts in developed economies, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing data from the International Labour Organization (ILO).
In low- and middle-income countries, more than a fifth of those under 30 with higher education remain jobless. Ironically, in these nations, graduates are more likely to be unemployed than those with only basic education.
The problem is worsened by the fact that many of the new colleges are of poor quality, producing graduates who aim for prestigious jobs without having the skills sought by employers.
Disillusioned graduates are increasingly migrating abroad, often illegally. In 2022, 36% of immigrants aged 25 to 64 entering the U.S. illegally held a university degree, up from 17% in 2007.
Others stay in their home countries, delaying marriage and starting families, contributing to demographic challenges that weigh on global growth. After long periods of unemployment, many graduates settle for low-paying jobs in retail or similar sectors.
In China, for example, youth unemployment hovers around 15%, with university graduates joking that they will become “full-time children,” caring for their parents in exchange for pocket money.
India is among the countries where the problem is most pronounced. An unprecedented boom in higher education over the past 20 years has tripled the share of young people with a degree. While some find work in the country’s vibrant tech hubs, many struggle. In 2022, 29% of Indian graduates under 30 were unemployed, triple the rate of those without even basic education.
This is the result of a surge in universities and graduates, which, at the start of the millennium, seemed like the surest way for a country to boost its national wealth. Economists and experts warned at the time that nations failing to invest in the knowledge economy would fall behind. Parents were determined to educate their children, and with limited seats at public universities, governments greenlighted the expansion of private institutions. Unable to charge high tuition fees as their clientele was often poor, these institutions lowered admission standards to increase enrollment.
As a result, between 2006 and 2018, the number of students in higher education in developing countries nearly doubled, from 79 million to 150 million. By 2018, about three-quarters of the world’s university students lived in emerging economies, up from half in 2006.
Academics now argue that a slower, more deliberate expansion of higher education would have better served these countries. “The door was opened too wide, too indiscriminately, and too quickly. The idea of maintaining standards wasn’t upheld as it should have been. And once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s very hard to put it back in,” Philip Altbach, a professor at Boston College’s Center for International Higher Education, told the Wall Street Journal.
[Information sourced from Money Review]
