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As the November 5 election approaches, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race for the White House, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which shows them tied at 48% among likely voters. This latest survey, with a margin of error of 2.2%, highlights the unpredictable nature of the election just days before voters head to the polls.
This deadlock is troubling for Harris, given that Democrats have historically won the popular vote even when losing the presidency. Polling trends indicate a decline in Harris's support since early October when she had a slight lead of 49% to 46%. Recent surveys show a more favorable landscape for Trump, with him leading by 48% to 46% in a CNBC poll and 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll.
Despite Harris holding slight advantages in some polls—like a Monmouth University survey showing her at 47% compared to Trump’s 44%—Trump has made significant gains. A HarrisX/Forbes survey finds him leading by two points nationally, and another poll from Emerson College shows him trailing Harris by just one point.
The race remains extremely close, especially in swing states. Harris currently leads in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Trump holds an advantage in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. The margins in these critical states are all within two points, suggesting that every vote will count.
In a surprising turn, recent polling indicates that while Harris still leads among Latino voters (54% to 40%), her support in this demographic has declined compared to past elections. Moreover, although she received positive feedback for her debate performance, it hasn't resulted in a significant boost in her overall polling numbers.
Political analysts, including Nate Silver, emphasize that this election is among the most evenly matched they've seen, with forecasts showing Trump slightly favored to win 51 times out of 100. As enthusiasm among Democrats has surged from 46% in June to 85% now, the stakes are higher than ever for both candidates, setting the stage for one of the closest presidential elections in recent history.
[Source: Forbes]
