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The European Union (EU) appears eager to play a role in reviving talks on the Cyprus problem, but its actual influence remains constrained by political realities. While Brussels has long-term strategic interests in seeing progress, both the EU and the United Nations (UN) are treading carefully, mindful of their respective roles and the delicate balance of power with Turkey.
A Diplomatic Balancing Act
The coming months, particularly the appointment of a UN envoy and the Turkish Cypriot elections, may determine whether talks gain momentum or remain stuck in a cycle of diplomatic gestures
According to a news article by Kathimerini's George Kakouris, the recent informal summit in Geneva and a high-level EU meeting in Brussels highlighted the ongoing efforts to re-engage in Cyprus negotiations. At a dinner hosted by UN Secretary General António Guterres in Geneva, leaders from both Cypriot communities and representatives from Turkey, Greece, and the UK met to discuss geopolitical stability before delving into Cyprus-specific issues. Similarly, Guterres’ lunch with EU leaders in Brussels reinforced the broader context, stability in Cyprus ties into wider international concerns, from the Ukraine war to Middle East tensions.
Despite Cyprus' push for deeper EU involvement, Brussels and New York remain cautious. The UN prioritizes neutrality, while the EU must manage its complex relationship with Turkey. That said, both institutions acknowledge that the EU will inevitably have to be involved in negotiations if and when they resume.
Turkey’s Role and the EU’s Dilemma
Turkey’s stance is a key variable in the equation. Ankara is looking to strengthen its ties with Europe, particularly in security matters, as highlighted by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. His cooperative tone in Geneva was a positive sign for Nicosia, yet shortly after, Turkey’s crackdown on opposition figures, such as the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, raised red flags in Brussels. This duality complicates the EU’s approach, as it seeks to incentivize Turkey while upholding democratic values.
Meanwhile, the UN is taking a measured approach, likely appointing a personal envoy by July to oversee discussions. This timeline aligns with upcoming elections in the Turkish Cypriot community, which could bring a shift in leadership and possibly a new opening for negotiations.
EU’s Involvement: Symbolic or Substantial?
In Geneva, the EU’s presence, represented by Julia Bertejolo, head of the Cyprus Resolution Support Unit, sent a political message, though it did not mark a major shift in strategy. The EU has been an observer in past talks, mainly offering technical and advisory support. However, Bertejolo’s role is significant as she will brief European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on key issues, including border crossings, the Green Line regulation, and EU-backed projects like a proposed bi-communal solar park in the buffer zone.
While von der Leyen reportedly holds a personal interest in the Cyprus issue, the EU’s ability to push negotiations forward remains limited. Brussels sees a convergence of interests with the UN, with both institutions exploring ways to strengthen cooperation. However, Turkey and the Turkish Cypriot leadership remain hesitant about increased EU involvement, viewing it as favoring the Greek Cypriot side.
What’s Next?
For now, the Cyprus problem remains one of many global crises competing for diplomatic attention. While the EU and the UN see a resolution as beneficial, neither is in a position to dictate terms. The coming months, particularly the appointment of a UN envoy and the Turkish Cypriot elections, may determine whether talks gain momentum or remain stuck in a cycle of diplomatic gestures with little concrete progress.
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