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According to Yiannis Ioannou in this Sunday's Kathimerini, efforts to revive Cyprus peace talks face significant challenges as hopes for a trilateral meeting between the UN Secretary-General, the Greek Cypriot, and Turkish Cypriot leaders during the UN General Assembly in New York appear slim. Separate meetings between UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and the two leaders are scheduled, but a joint session remains unlikely until at least October or November.
President Nikos Christodoulides will address the UN General Assembly on September 25, reiterating his willingness to resume peace talks based on the bizonal, bicommunal federation framework that was interrupted in 2017. Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar is set to meet Guterres separately, maintaining his demand for a two-state solution and sovereign equality for Turkish Cypriots, a stance that complicates prospects for a meaningful dialogue.
Guterres is expected to attempt to organize a trilateral meeting later this year to keep the process alive, with discussions possibly taking place either at UN headquarters or in Cyprus. However, there is uncertainty about whether Tatar and Ankara will accept such a proposal. Turkish Cypriot officials have hinted at preferring a broader "five-party" conference involving other stakeholders, following the model of past international meetings.
Diplomatic observers tell "K" that if there is no trilateral meeting at all, then the possibility of mobility on the Cyprus problem within the first half of 2025 is essentially removed. Potential political developments in the Turkish-occupied north in 2025, such as local elections or leadership changes, could positively influence the dialogue process. However, these developments would require initial steps, like a trilateral meeting or preliminary negotiations, to preserve momentum. Without such steps, the chances of reviving talks in 2025 could be severely diminished, further complicating the prospects for resolving the Cyprus issue.
Meanwhile, the two sides are pursuing separate diplomatic strategies. Tatar recently promoted the idea of direct flights, trade, and relations for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) during a tour in the UK, and he is expected to emphasize this during his New York visit. Christodoulides, on the other hand, will focus on reaffirming the UN Security Council’s resolutions on Cyprus and securing support from key UNSC members. Additionally, he will engage in discussions with U.S. officials on energy issues in the Eastern Mediterranean, including ongoing negotiations with Chevron about the development of the Aphrodite gas field.
The outcome of these efforts remains uncertain, with the potential for future talks largely dependent on the willingness of both sides and their international backers to compromise.
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